Cabinet reshuffle: Varadkar vote underlined strength of Government majority

And so the switcheroo in the Taoiseach’s office between Micheál Martin and Leo Varadkar, marking the end of the first half and the beginning of the second for this coalition Government, went off more or less without a hitch on Saturday.

The Cabinet changes, as expected, were minimal – Simon Coveney moving to the Department of Enterprise to make room for Martin in Iveagh House, and the Chief Whip’s job switching to Fine Gael. Doubts about Hildegarde Naughton’s suitability for the role (doing the rounds in her own party all week) were overcome by her advantages of gender and geography – and Varadkar’s eventual conclusion that contrary to the doubts of her colleagues she is well capable of performing the pivotal chief whip’s job.

Jack Chambers switches to his old job in the Department of Transport. Everyone else stays where they are. It hardly even qualifies as a reshuffle. More of a wee-shuffle, as the Leinster House wits dubbed it.

Finalising the line-up of Junior Ministers is taking a bit longer than expected, and there is now an expectation that some changes will be made on the Fine Gael side. Fine Gael wants Thomas Byrne to move from the Minister for Europe job so that Varadkar can be accompanied by a party colleague when he goes to EU summits. Fianna Fáil isn’t wild about this idea, but sees the logic and won’t dig in on it. Otherwise, the lobbying for junior jobs will be off the scales on Monday and Tuesday, and the party leaders will face the perennial problem – too many supplicants, not enough jobs. The juniors won’t be announced until Tuesday or even Wednesday. The truth is they matter a lot to people in Leinster House but not a lot to people outside it.

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Much was made on Saturday of the historic nature of the handover, with Varadkar in his speech recalling the peaceful transfer of power from Cumann na nGaedhael to Fianna Fáil in 1932, the event which more than most others decided that Ireland would not follow the path of many European democracies to violent failure in that decade. Unless Eamon Ó Cuiv was secretly packing a revolver – possible, but very unlikely – this is rather over-egging the pudding. Saturday’s switchover was more a sign that the new structure of Irish politics, requiring multiparty coalitions without dominant players, will feature these sort of days in the future.

[ The Irish Times view on Leo Varadkar’s second term as Taoiseach ]

It was a curious day for Sinn Féin, which chose to target most of its fire on the incoming Taoiseach, eyeing Varadkar, perhaps, as a better and more polarising opponent with which to do battle than Martin. A Sinn Féin vs Fine Gael narrative, of course, is something that Varadkar has been trying to promote for a few years now. The role of Taoiseach offers him a better platform than ever before to define the next election as a choice between his party and Sinn Féin.

Only thing is: voters haven’t swallowed this narrative before, knowing full well that the Irish system gives them a myriad of options rather than just a binary choice. It will be interesting to see if Varadkar has another go at it.

There’s certainly a new combativeness towards Sinn Féin among Government TDs and Ministers in recent weeks. It’s partly because of the recent uptick in some opinion polls since the budget but also because of the Hutch trial, and the role and evidence of the star witness, former Sinn Féin councillor Jonathan Dowdall. Government TDs were delighting in throwing it across the chamber at Sinn Féin.

[ Cabinet reshuffle presents opportunity for Sinn Féin to sharpen attack on Government strategy ]

Opposition to the new appointments ranged from the predictable to the peculiar. Outspoken Independent TD Mattie McGrath used his time to attack Varadkar for being part of an international conspiracy organised by Klaus Schwab and the World Economic Forum which was dedicated to destroying the sovereignty of countries. This took a lot of people by surprise, who are more accustomed to hear Deputy McGrath bemoan the destruction of rural Ireland – which has been under way for many years now – at the hands of the Green Party. The Schwab angle was a new one on them. Shortly after his speech, a text arrived from deep in the heart of his Tipperary constituency: “What in f**k was Mattie on about?” The interlude did not derail proceedings, however, and Opposition Deputies went on to denounce the new Government on more conventional grounds.

There is no getting away from the fact that we are now entering the second half of this Government’s term of office. And that means that the general election that must happen in or before February 2025 will loom ever larger in the imaginations and calculations of politicians at all levels, in all parties.

But Saturday tells us something important about that too: look at the size of the majority. Varadkar won by 25 votes. What that means is that if the parties stick together this Government will last the course until early 2025.

Is the little-changed Cabinet a sign of stability or of stagnation?

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