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North and South: United on a Border poll, poles apart on being united

Inside Politics: Sharp divisions between Northern Ireland and Republic over citizenship in a possible united Ireland

NI poll image week two

A large majority of voters in Northern Ireland say they should not have to become Irish citizens in the event of a united Ireland, but should be allowed to remain British citizens only

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Harry McGee
Tue Dec 13 2022 - 08:02

Unity on a Border poll, still poles apart on unity.

In the week that Micheál Martin steps down as Taoiseach – to be replaced by Leo Varadkar – it is apt that we conclude the first part of our series looking at attitudes in the North and South to the big questions of identity and a possible united Ireland. The reporting was based on opinion polls in both jurisdictions in addition to focus group research.

The things Martin will leave behind in terms of his legacy as Taoiseach will be his increasingly assured handling of the Covid pandemic over time, as well as his own Shared Island initiative.

On the latter issue, the Fianna Fáil leader’s interpretation of republicanism was very different from all his predecessors with the exception of Jack Lynch. Indeed, he has been reluctant to use the term “united Ireland” – in the currency of politics, he viewed that very much as “old money” – favouring “shared Ireland”. At times, Martin has seemed less republican (in the traditional sense) than the leader of Fine Gael, Varadkar, an irony in itself. His argument is that the disposition has changed and the proposition is no longer the binary choice it has been for decades, even centuries. That, indeed, is true. All the same, his stance has not endeared itself to sections of his own party, who believe that Fianna Fáil has wholly conceded the party’s republican mantle to Sinn Féin.

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The latest findings from the research show there are sharp divisions between voters in Northern Ireland and the Republic over citizenship in a possible united Ireland. A majority in the Republic say northerners must become Irish citizens, while a majority in the North resist this.

A large majority of voters in Northern Ireland say they should not have to become Irish citizens in the event of a united Ireland, but should be allowed to remain British citizens only.

As Pat Leahy reports: “The research shows again the differing attitudes between North and South to the shape of a possible united Ireland. It also shows that voters in the Republic are at odds with the provisions of the Belfast Agreement, which guarantees the right of people in Northern Ireland to be British or Irish citizens, or both.”

In an accompanying commentary, Pat takes an overview of the series so far. The main takeaway from all the research, he says, is that the surveys carried out North and South found a majority in both jurisdictions want a Border poll. “That is quite a stark finding, and food for thought for both governments,” he writes.

The desire for a poll does not make for a dovetailing of views elsewhere. A clear majority in the North oppose unity, while a much larger majority in the South is in favour of unity.

Pat makes a salient observation on findings which will surprise many people, the lack of willingness of southerners to concede. “For many voters in the Republic, their idea of unity is that it should happen on their terms. Among many voters in the Republic, there are few signs of willingness to make changes to either accommodate unionists in a potential united Ireland, or to seek to persuade them to accept a vote in favour of unity, if that is what happened.”

Read Pat’s full report here.

Ethics rules for public officials and judges

Jack Horgan-Jones has the heads-up this morning on some of the key issues to be discussed in Cabinet. The main item on the agenda is coming from Minister for Public Expenditure and Reform Michael McGrath who is seeking approval to review ethics legislation.

The new reforms will draw in the judiciary for the first time as part of a consolidated regime for standards in public life. The initiative will also try to have consistent standards applying at both local and national Government level.

In a further contribution at his last meeting in his current portfolio (he will become Minister for Finance on Saturday) McGrath will also tell the Cabinet that of €2 billion set aside for Ukraine-related spending, €1.5 billion has been spent.

Jack has all the details here.

Dublin Airport’s new runway

Cormac McQuinn and Olivia Kelly report that Fingal County Council has opened an investigation into Dublin Airport’s alleged non-compliance with planning permission for its new north runway.

The runway opened only last August but has already been the subject of a series of complaints from affected residents about aircraft noise and flight paths.

As we report: “Fingal County Council (FCC) issued a warning letter to the airport’s operators DAA notifying it of the investigation. The letter says that alleged ‘unauthorised development may be ongoing’ that does not comply with the planning permission related to the runway.

“This includes aircraft not operating in the permitted flight paths and the noise being generated not being in accordance with the planning permission. FCC also cites alleged non-compliance with noise insulation schemes for homes, among other issues.”

One resident complained that the noise from planes using the €320 million runway was “horrendous and unacceptable”.

Best Reads

Cormac McQuinn reports that the three Coalition leaders may only begin talking about the imminent Cabinet reshuffling on Friday, the eve of the historic transition of power in Government. Read it here.

Kitty Holland writes that the free meals provision for Ukrainian refugees may be phased out over the coming weeks. Article here.

As part of our series on attitudes to Irish unification Fintan O’Toole writes that a doublethink on a united Ireland is a part of what we are.

Gerard Howlin writes that neutrality is a hard-nosed responsibility, not a romantic notion.

Playbook

A fateful week in the political life of Micheál Martin. He goes to his final European Union summit as Taoiseach on Thursday, before handing over the role to Leo Varadkar at a special Dáil sitting on Saturday. The switch will prompt a mini reshuffle with Paschal Donohoe and Michael McGrath also swapping roles. Current chief whip Jack Chambers will also move to accommodate a Fine Gael whip.

The Cabinet meets this morning with a packed agenda. Jack Horgan-Jones has much of the detail in this morning’s Irish Times.

Dáil

The Lower House will sit until almost midnight.

Leaders’ Questions will begin at 2pm followed by expressions of sympathy for the late Bobby Aylward, the popular Mullinavat man and Fianna Fáil TD for Carlow-Kilkenny, at 3.50pm.

Government Business, from 4.35pm, includes the second stage of the Appropriation Bill 2022 and a motion regarding the appointment of ordinary members of the Electoral Commission. These members have been mostly recruited through the public appointments system. The commission will take on responsibilities for the oversight of elections and referendums in Ireland.

Private Members’ Business is from 7.30pm, with a Sinn Féin motion on issues affecting the health services.

Questions to Tánaiste and Minister for Enterprise Leo Varadkar begin at 9.30pm.

Seanad

A long day for the Upper House too, starting at 11.30am and rising at 9.30pm.

Highlights include:

Committees

At 11am the Joint Committee on Environment will discuss the role of media and communications in actioning climate change with representatives from RTÉ, the Advertising Standards Authority of Ireland, Purpose Disruptors Ireland and Client Earth.

At the same time the Joint Committee on Autism will hear about assistive technology as well as autism policy from a parent (Carmel Ryan) and a student (Fiacre Ryan). It will also hear from the Irish Congress of Trade Unions, the Irish National Teachers’ Organisation, the Services Industrial Professional and Technical Union and Specialisterne Ireland.

At 3pm the Joint Committee on Housing will discuss Housing for All with voluntary housing groups including Clúid, Respond, Tuath and Circle.

The Joint Committee on Transport will have an update on the provision of bus services in Dublin with Dublin Bus, the NTA and Go-Ahead Ireland at 7pm.

At the same time the Joint Committee on Agriculture will be discussing the Forestry Strategic Vision with representatives from Coillte.