Energy crisis and winter Covid-19 plan to dominate political agenda

Loathe as we are to start your morning digest with precautionary tales about the winter ahead, this is exactly what the Cabinet will be considering when it meets this morning.

For the last few weeks there have been disparate voices warning against the dangers of the winter ahead, specifically in terms of what would happen if the flu circulates at the same time as a new or existing Covid-19 strain.

Absolutely nobody wants to cast their minds back to this time last year when the country was in the midst of reopening hospitality, entertainment and the night-time economy. That’s because it was a false start (or restart) because restrictions were reimposed in early December of 2021 and continued all the way until late January of this year. The country weathered the Omicron surge and almost overnight in early 2022, restrictions on household gatherings, hospitality curfews and remote working measures came to an end.

Since then, there has barely been a politician in sight who has called for the reimposition of Covid-19 restrictions, and understandably so. And yet one of the most unremarked upon parts of Budget 2023 lay right in the very back of the official documentation, where the potential risks of the winter ahead were detailed. One of those risks examined a scenario in which the flu and Covid-19 ripped through the population at the same time in the colder months. The outcome of this risk was that mobility restriction (their words, not ours) could be needed again.

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Regardless of the worst-case scenarios that officials are tasked with coming up with, pretty much no one in the world of politics expects a situation this winter akin to Christmas of 2021.

But many of these presumptions depend on the planning that is under way in the Department of Health, which brings us neatly back to this morning’s Cabinet agenda.

As Pat Leahy reports, the Minister for Health Stephen Donnelly is set to brief his Cabinet colleagues on the winter plan for the health service today, in the context of those rising fears about a “twindemic” of Covid-19 and the flu in the coming months.

He will tell his fellow Ministers about measures to speed up recruitment of staff and create more capacity in community care to ease the pressure on emergency departments. The full details of the plan will be revealed when the HSE publishes the document this afternoon.

As Leahy reports, Mr Donnelly will tell other Ministers that the total spend on the winter plan will be €168 million, of which almost €45 million will be spent this year.

“Among its other measures are: the recruitment of hundreds of additional staff, especially in emergency departments where Mr Donnelly has sought an additional 51 emergency consultants, and other ED staff; improved access to diagnostics, including providing services such as X-rays, scans and MRIs in the evenings and at weekends; additional supports for elderly people to support them in their homes; more community intervention teams, expansion of minor injury units to reduce the need for attendance in hospitals; and more ambulance services,” Leahy reports.

At the same time, Mr Donnelly is also likely to bring the first advice from his new public health advisers, including new Chief Medical Officer Prof Breda Smyth, to Cabinet.

“It is expected to warn of an increased threat from Covid-19 as winter approaches and suggest that those who are vulnerable should wear face masks in settings where they feel under threat,” according to our report this morning.

Read the full piece here.

Energy crisis

Keep an eye on irishtimes.com today, because G7 leaders will meet to discuss the possibility of lowering international gas prices. There was an almost cautious optimism last week that gas price caps were the direction of travel but, unsurprisingly, actually making it happen is proving to be highly problematic.

In the first instance, this is because every EU country has taken different measures to shield their citizens from the soaring energy prices but it is secondly because the phrase “gas price cap” has many meanings. Energy ministers in various countries seem to understand the phrase differently and that has only added to the confusion.

For example, one school of thought is that the EU would pick the ceiling or “cap” at which the industry could afford to pay for gas, and that governments would foot anything above this. So, companies would still buy gas at record prices, but they would be compensated for the amount they pay above this symbolic price agreed at EU level. The problem is: it would be hugely, massively expensive.

The second option is that the EU sets an actual hard ceiling, but then the issue is this: if global suppliers can sell gas for more elsewhere, why wouldn’t they? And where does that leave us?

Then there is the fudge, the place where many actual political decisions live. A cap would be set, but there would be wiggle room. This would see a fluctuating price on all EU wholesale gas transactions that would move up or down by 5 per cent, or another amount. This would compensate for the different levels of reliance in different countries.

In truth, all of this still needs to be thrashed out and fleshed out. A summit in Prague took place last week and although there were positive soundings, it was an informal meeting, and so there was no definitive agreement. Another summit is due to take place in Brussels at the end of next week. But, as we report today, politicians and officials with knowledge of the discussions say that reaching agreement in such a short time will be extremely difficult. Separately Mr Ryan is also due to bring a memo to Cabinet this morning seeking approval to draft new legislation to enable the Government to deal with an oil shortage. Read all of the details on the latest wranglings on energy prices here.

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PLAYBOOK

DÁIL EIREANN

It is Tuesday, so Leaders’ Questions will be up at 2pm with Sinn Féin, the Labour Party, People Before Profit-Solidarity, and the Regional Group leading the charge. The Order of Business will be taken just after 2:30pm and then 3:05pm, Taoiseach Micheál Martin will take to his feet for Taoiseach’s Questions. He doesn’t have too many of these left given Fine Gael leader Leo Varadkar is due to take the helm as rotating Taoiseach in just a little over two months. Government Business today will see politicians debate the three €200 energy credits due to go to households across the country this winter and next spring. Private Members’ Business will then be taken at 7.30pm this evening with a Sinn Féin motion on disability services.

See here for a more detailed schedule

SEANAD

The Seanad sits from 2.30pm until 9pm today. First up are Commencement Matters followed by the Order of Business an hour later. Then at 4.45pm, the Consumer Rights Bill 2022 is up. This legislation effectively brings all the consumer related legislation into one piece of legislation. At 7pm, Private Members’ Business will be taken with a motion in relation to Iran. This motion is being brought by Fianna Fáil Senator Lisa Chambers. The Seanad adjourns at 9pm.

The full agenda can be found here

COMMITTEES

There are plenty of interesting committees up today, for those so-minded. Kicking things off will be the Joint Committee on Environment and Climate Action at 11am, where TDs and Senators will review retrofitting schemes and district heating systems. The meeting will hear from representatives of the Sustainable Energy Authority of Ireland (SEAI).

At the same time, the Joint Committee on Disability Matters will launch a report on the participation of people with disabilities in political, cultural, community and public life.

At 3pm, the Joint Committee on Justice will hold an engagement with Věra Jourová, Vice-President of the European Commission for Values and Transparency, on the European Commission’s Rule of Law Report 2022.

Also at 3pm, the Joint Committee on Children, Equality, Disability, Integration and Youth will hold an engagement in relation to alternative aftercare services for all young adults who require the services,

Also at 3pm, the Joint Committee on Housing, Local Government and Heritage will discuss the implementation of Housing For All with representatives from Dublin City Council and Dún Laoghaire-Rathdown Council.

The full schedule of committee hearings can be found here.