Confidence motion may fail but it highlights precariousness of Coalition numbers

It’s the last week of the Dáil before the summer recess so, of course, politicians are winding down with minimal fanfare as the spirit of collegiality sustains them for these final days.

If you’re thinking “not a chance”, then you’d be right.

The words “summer election” were uttered in various different interviews yesterday ahead of a Sinn Féin motion of no confidence in the Government this evening.

But for all the speculation about a summer poll, and what this would mean for the planned cost-of-living budget, the Coalition expects to survive with anywhere up to 84 or 85 votes. The current majority is 80 TDs, and the Government slipped one below this to 79 after Joe McHugh’s Mica wobble last week.

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However, both McHugh and Fianna Fáil exile Marc MacSharry say they still lend their support.

The message from Sinn Féin leader Mary Lou McDonald is the Coalition is “out of ideas, out of touch and out of time” and that it is “time to make way for a Government that will put workers and families first.”

Sinn Féin knows full well the Government won’t collapse over this vote but putting the motion forward piles more pressure on ahead of what will be a tricky few months with the cost-of-living crisis and the looming threat of energy blackouts this winter.

The motion also puts Independent TDs in the spotlight, as they have to nail their colours to the mast. On Monday, Tipperary TD Michael Lowry confirmed he would support the Government. Taoiseach Micheál Martin will also be hoping for the support of others Independents such as Cathal Berry and Sean Canney, who were holding their cards close to their chest last night. Calls were still flying until late in the evening.

Ministers will label the motion as a “stunt” and will seek to portray Sinn Féin as reckless. The vote will come and go but the fact remains that the loss of a working majority is a sizeable blow, and absolutely not where they wanted to be just halfway into their term of Government. It also shows just how tricky Government can be for the Greens — but it seems as though both Neasa Hourigan and Patrick Costello will vote with the Coalition this time.

You can read Pat Leahy’s analysis of the situation here.

Follow irishtimes.com throughout the day for live updates.

A packed Cabinet agenda

There are two major memos going to Cabinet this morning: one on the future funding of the Defence Forces and another of the future funding of RTÉ.

Minister for Defence Simon Coveney will seek approval to gradually increase the funding of the Defence Forces to €1.5 billion with thousands of extra civil and military personnel due to be hired. He is also expected to tell Ministers of plans to prioritise money for military radar capabilities, including a primary radar. It’s a lot more money, and a lot more people. One person who will have a close eye on the memo will be Independent TD Cathal Berry, who will decide whether he will support the Government in the motion of confidence based on the strength of Coveney’s announcement. Read about his plans here.

Separately, Taoiseach Micheál Martin and Minister for Media Catherine Martin will bring a joint memo on the long-awaited Future of Media Commission report. They will tell the Cabinet meeting that the TV licence fee will not be abolished although the collection and enforcement of the charge will be overhauled. The broadcaster estimates that some €65 million is lost as result licence-fee evasion and the growing number of “no TV” households that are ineligible to pay the charge. Ministers will discuss plans to scale up enforcement.

Here’s the full Cabinet round-up.

Uber

Simon Carswell and Arthur Beesley have another fascinating piece on the front page this morning following on from the leak of the so-called Uber Files. Those files revealed how Uber courted top politicians.

The revelations are contained in a leak of more than 124,000 documents to the Guardian and shared with the International Consortium of Investigative Journalists, which includes The Irish Times.

On Monday, Beesley and Carswell revealed how the US company claimed that Fine Gael inserted text written by Uber into its 2016 general election manifesto.

Uber said its text was used in the party’s February 2016 manifesto as the result of a lobbying campaign by John Moran, the former Department of Finance secretary general, who claimed special access to then Minister for Finance Michael Noonan in his dealings with the cab-hailing business. On the front page today, it is revealed how public lobbying returns covering political contacts by Uber in 2015 and 2016 failed to disclose specific meetings with former Taoiseach Enda Kenny, other senior Government ministers and the top civil servant. Mr Moran said he fully disclosed his role and added: “If the regulator believes I made any errors at all, I am more than happy to correct them.”

Read their latest piece here.

Best reads

Denis Staunton has the latest from the UK.

There are stormy times ahead, if the words of Paschal Donohoe are anything to go by.

But in some better news, summer has arrived and is hopefully hanging around for a while.

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Playbook

Dáil Éireann

Leaders’ Questions are up at 2pm followed by the Order of Business at 2.34pm. Taoiseach’s questions are up at 3.05pm, which will be followed by a motion in relation to opting into the asylum, migration and integration fund. The aforementioned Sinn Féin motion of confidence in the Government is up at 5.40pm.

The Minister for Health Stephen Donnelly will take parliamentary questions at 7.40pm and the Dáil adjourns at 9.58pm.

You can find the full schedule here.

Seanad

Commencement Matters are scheduled for 10.00am followed by the Order of Business at 11.30am. Senators will also debate a motion in relation to the opt-in to the 2021-2027 Asylum, Migration and Integration Fund (AMIF) in order to support member states to manage the influx of refugees from Ukraine. Government business is up at 2pm, with the Higher Education Authority Bill 2022 on the agenda today. At 4pm Senators will also discuss key issues affecting the Traveller Community. The Seanad adjourns at 9pm.

A more detailed agenda can be found here.

Committees

The Joint Committee on Autism meets at 11am to discuss autism policy with Minister of State Anne Rabbitte and later Adam Harris, the chief executive officer of AsIAm.

At 3pm, the Joint Committee on Justice will meet with various stakeholders to look at the current approach to sanctions for possession of certain amounts of drugs for personal use. The committee will hear from, among others, representatives from Cannabis Risk Alliance.

At 3.15pm, the Joint Committee on Foreign Affairs and Defence CR2 will hold a session with the Minister for Foreign Affairs Simon Coveney on matters considered at meetings of the Foreign Affairs Council and the UN Security Council.

The best of the rest can be found here.