Leo Varadkar has been vindicated over leak, but the affair will leave its scars

The exoneration of Leo Varadkar has cleared the way for the second act of the Coalition Government to begin later this year when the Fine Gael leader takes over the taoiseach’s office. That is its most important consequence.

But the leak affair, and the way it played out over the last 20 months, will also leave its scars on Varadkar and his party. And it will also serve as an illustration of how politics and political discourse has been changed by social media in ways that parties and candidates in the next election will note carefully, if they are wise.

Fine Gael sources across the party, from diehard Varadkar loyalists to those who no longer count themselves in his gang to those who never did, expressed their relief on Wednesday night and Thursday morning at the news that the Tánaiste will not face charges.

Though few really expected that Varadkar would find himself in court on criminal charges of corruption as a result of the Village magazine story and the subsequent Garda investigation – the case for a prosecution under anti-corruption legislation was wafer thin on the examination of all the known facts – the levels of anxiety over the case have been significant, if largely subterranean, since last year.

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[ Relieved Varadkar still damaged by leak affair ]

[ Varadkar says allegations he broke law were ‘false’ and made by ‘sworn political opponents’ ]

[ Leo Varadkar will not face criminal charges over leaking of GP contract ]

Varadkar now finds himself with five months to prepare for the defining challenge of his political life – leading a government and resuscitating his party’s fortunes. His predecessor has taken the view that achieving success in the first of those tasks should make the other possible. He has the luxury of not facing a general election in taking that approach.

Varadkar’s task will be more complex – he will have to ensure that the Government achieves as many of its goals as possible – in housing, health, tackling the cost of living and so on – while ensuring that his party gets as much of the credit for that as possible. Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael have not really figured out how to be Government partners and electoral rivals, but under Micheál Martin they haven’t had to. Under Varadkar, as the clock ticks remorselessly towards a general election, they will.

But from Varadkar’s point of view, at least he now gets a fair run at that task. “I think there was a cloud over him, he carried it personally,” says a person in Government with regular contact with him. He would hardly be human if he doesn’t feel a spring in his step. All politicians, to a greater or lesser degree, are confidence players, and Varadkar is no exception.

The scale of the task facing him is considerable. “It’s great Leo is in the clear,” says a colleague. “But Joe McHugh is still gone, we’re still down to 33 seats, we’re still on 19 per cent and the cost of living is still rising – Leo’s news doesn’t change any of that.”

But Varadkar would be foolish not to take lessons from the experience. He acknowledges a mistake if not a crime, and he has probably learned, somewhat painfully, that sometimes people want to be friends with public figures for their own purposes. It is surprising he did not learn it before he became taoiseach. Varadkar is by nature self-critical and it would be odd had he not reflected on the carelessness at the heart of the episode.

There was once a time when Varadkar was viewed by many people, surveys said, as different from most politicians – a straight talker who “tells us as it is”. Then there were periods, first during Brexit then the early stages of the pandemic, when his personal popularity rocketed into the stratosphere. Since then, however, his own ratings, while not disastrous, have become definitely more terrestrial.

His presentation of himself to the public in the autumn as taoiseach-in-waiting and then as taoiseach will require something different than before. There is no getting away from the fact that the electorate – at least among crucial swing voters, of whom there are more than ever before – took a look at his and Fine Gael’s offering in 2020 and decided to pass on it. Varadkar 2.0 cannot be any less authentic than the original version; but it probably needs to be different, all the same.

He will undertake this task in a political discourse that has been changed by the lately concluded controversy. While the Village magazine story about the leak was a proper scoop – though its “Leo law breaker” headline hasn’t aged well – and was immediately picked up by more mainstream media outlets, it was the relentless promotion of the story online that gave it real power. The hashtag #Leotheleak was ubiquitous and sustained. The enduring social media storm and its enthusiastic propagation by that party’s army of online supporters prompted Sinn Féin to table a Dáil motion of no confidence in Varadkar.

What was especially notable about this particular social media storm however, was the level and persistence of the vitriol directed at Varadkar. “The abuse is simply extraordinary,” says one senior political figure, who confesses to being taken aback by the political power of something he doesn’t understand. Varadkar was routinely accused of corruption, criminality, venality and “cronyism”; the accusations were often amplified by Sinn Féin-supporting accounts. Inevitably, they cast the Varadkar leak story in the populist narrative – an example of the self-interested elite, looking after their friends, to the detriment of the ordinary people.

“We tut-tut about British and American politics,” says one TD who is not a fan of Varadkar. “But look at the nastiness directed at him.”

One of Varadkar’s most vocal critics was Paddy Cosgrave, a successful entrepreneur who established the Web Summit technology conference and related events; he has relentlessly promoted the story of Varadkar’s investigation since it first broke. Asked by The Irish Times about his pursuit of the case, he responded with a statement saying that Village magazine was standing by its story, and suggesting that the decision of the DPP could be challenged by judicial review (this is unlikely). He did not respond to further queries.

Judging by his Twitter presence, Cosgrave’s forays into political debate are unlikely to be at an end. His accusations, and those of Village magazine, were not vindicated. But they have certainly been consequential.