French voters have opted decisively for right-wing candidates in the first round of the general elections, on a substantially reduced turnout. If the pattern is confirmed in the second round next Sunday, an unexpected stability will return to French politics, with an end to the right-left cohabitation in place since the mid-1980s.
The socialists have not recovered from the political earthquake that saw the National Front leader, Mr Jean-Marie Le Pen, defeat their candidate, Mr Lionel Jospin, in the first round of the presidential elections on April 21st.
President Chirac is emerging as the unlikely victor from these dramatic events. More attention is being paid to the emerging centre-right agenda he has forged since last month with his newly-appointed prime minister, Mr Jean-Pierre Raffarin. It includes substantial tax and pension reforms, and an overhaul of the 35 hour week introduced by the socialists to make it more flexible. Assuming voters give this programme their support, it could encounter opposition from the European Commission and from militant public-sector trade unions which have vociferously rejected pension reforms. Changes in the working hours arrangements would probably be popular with many groups of workers.
The scale of the right's potential victory owes more to its attitudes on crime, security and immigration than to these specific economic policies. Such issues lay behind Mr Le Pen's appeal. Since his appointment, Mr Raffarin and his interior minister, Mr Nicholas Sarkozy, have adopted much of the same rhetorical approach. The left-wing parties have not been able to capitalise on the surge of republican and multicultural feeling that gave Mr Chirac his overwhelming victory over Mr Le Pen on May 5th. In disarray, they will need a much longer time to come to terms with the social and psychological gulf that has opened up between their leaders and their traditional less well-educated working-class supporters.
The socialists share this problem with other European social democratic parties which have lost power in recent months. They must analyse why the gulf has occurred and try to ensure it does not result in a long-term shift towards a fortress France and a Europe opposed to immigration and open to racist policies.