The Irish Times view on the public finances: the people are ahead of the politicians

Today’s findings from the latest Irish Times/Ipsos opinion poll contain important messages about voters’ preferences on vital issues and suggest that, in some respects at least, the public is ahead of its politicians on tackling the most pressing issues facing the country and the world.

Most strikingly, the poll shows that despite all the political noise of recent weeks, there is little by way of a public appetite for tax cuts. Voters were asked their view of a series of options for using the giant surpluses projected for the public finances in the coming years, and also invited to submit their own preferences.

By far the most popular preference was for investment in public services and infrastructure – ahead of tax cuts, ahead of saving, paying down debt, spending on climate action or preparing for a united Ireland. And despite the recent advocacy for tax cuts by Fine Gael Ministers and Taoiseach Leo Varadkar, Fine Gael voters are no more in favour of spending the surplus than are voters in general. Though Ministers would be wise not to mistake the appetite for significant investment in services and infrastructure as tolerance for overspending and underdelivering. For any government, few failures are more politically damaging than spending large amounts of money and delivering little in return.

The findings on voters’ attitudes to climate action display a nuanced commitment to decarbonisation, both as public policy and in their own lives. In response to a series of questions, voters suggest that they are largely on board with – or at least, they are not opposed to – the decarbonisation agenda; almost four-in-10 are impatient at the speed of its implementation, while 30 per cent say it’s proceeding at the right pace. Voters say it’s “reasonable” to ask people to make a series of changes in their lives, but only a minority want climate action to be the Government’s overriding priority.

The Irish Times/Ipsos B&A poll: the full results in charts

---

Nuanced views on immigration despite concern over levels of inflow, poll data shows

---

Why is Ireland no longer taking immigration in its stride and what does it mean for the next election?

---

Poll: Majority want tighter immigration rules in Ireland

---

With many indicators pointing towards a growing climate crisis, some climate activists will find this unsatisfactory and insufficient. But they must take the public as they find them. Education and information about the way the world’s climate is being changed by carbon emissions from industrial, social and agricultural activity have already changed the global conversation and official policies; persuasion and evidence will work better than hectoring and compulsion.

There are lessons for the Green Party, too. Over a quarter of respondents to the poll said that the party had made a positive contribution to helping Ireland meet climate change commitments. Like all small parties, the Greens often find government difficult, and fears of an electoral wipeout are ever-present. But for a party on just 4 per cent, there is clearly a large pool of voters who are well-disposed to hearing its message.