A Sinn Féin minority government is a real possibility

Seat projections from the latest opinion polls show the present Government or a Sinn Féin-led left and green coalition would each be half a dozen seats short of a majority. Either side might cobble together enough Independents to get over the line but the resulting government would be a bag of cats.

Although a Sinn Féin-Fianna Fáil coalition offers the most plausible, workable majority, Micheál Martin’s party has another option: a confidence-and-supply agreement with a Sinn Féin minority government, perhaps comprising a slimmed-down coalition of the left. This would give Fianna Fáil a range of ways to position itself if it cannot embrace Sinn Féin or continue its arrangement with Fine Gael.

Cynical members of Fianna Fáil might ponder the advantage of leaving Sinn Féin to twist in the wind after the next election

Coalition is usually disastrous for the junior partner, while the fate of the SDLP offers a particular warning against playing second fiddle to Sinn Féin. Confidence and supply could avoid this trap, or minimise the damage. Fianna Fáil’s 2016 deal with Fine Gael is unloved within the party, yet its vote share dropped by only two percentage points after a four-year term. That deal covered shared policy goals, in addition to budget and confidence votes. A New Zealand model of “enhanced confidence and supply” could give Fianna Fáil Cabinet posts on shared goals, while leaving it free to oppose the government on everything else.

Confidence and supply could be presented as more of an opposition arrangement than a partnership – a means of keeping Sinn Féin in check.

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Alternatively, Fianna Fáil could leave Sinn Féin to form a minority administration without confidence and supply. That is how Fianna Fáil governed Ireland for much of the last century.

The present Government seems too exhausted to continue as a minority, but this can hardly be ruled out

Exposing Sinn Féin to the attrition of office may see its vote suffer in the subsequent election, following which Fianna Fáil could be returned as the largest party and offer Sinn Féin the poisoned chalice of junior partner. Sinn Féin would not have to lead an unusually disappointing government to bring this about. The democratic pendulum could swing against it anyway, as it swung towards it three years ago.

During the five difficult months of government formation after the 2020 general election, Sinn Féin was challenged by other parties to form a minority left coalition. Other doors to office opened when Fine Gael considered opposition and the pandemic led to calls for a national government. This has since been forgotten – it was widely accepted that Sinn Féin was unprepared for power, having been as surprised by its landslide as almost everyone else. There would be no such understanding if it shied away from office again, or even appeared to hesitate – it has raised too many expectations.

Cynical members of Fianna Fáil might ponder the advantage of leaving Sinn Féin to twist in the wind after the next election, agonising over the compromises necessary to form a minority administration and accept Fianna Fáil’s terms for support.

Last year, Fianna Fáil sources told The Irish Times their party’s likely conditions for coalition with Sinn Féin were “unambiguously repudiating the IRA”, “a complete apology for the violence of the Troubles”, “recognition of the role of the Garda, Defence Forces and the courts, including the Special Criminal Court” and “rhetorically concede that there are two jurisdictions on the island, called Ireland and Northern Ireland.”

There is no prospect of Sinn Féin repudiating the IRA – it wants the Provisionals added to Ireland’s pantheon of heroes. It might eventually meet the other conditions but only on its own terms, while demanding sole credit for its courageous progress. It will not move promptly at another party’s behest.

Confidence and supply could be presented as more of an opposition arrangement than a partnership – a means of keeping Sinn Féin in check

Fianna Fáil could soften its conditions by settling for confidence and supply instead of coalition. Or it could stand its ground, say it was defending the Republic and let Sinn Féin try to assemble a minority administration without support.

The present Government seems too exhausted to continue as a minority but this can hardly be ruled out. Martin would certainly prefer it to governing under Sinn Féin. If he will not help McDonald into office, the weight of public and political expectation will fall on him to strike another deal with Fine Gael. All this assumes there is zero chance of Fine Gael striking a deal with Sinn Féin. That also looks slightly underpriced.

Although minority governments have come to be seen as weak and strange, they are normal in proportional representation systems and have been common in Ireland. Of the 33 governments since 1919, 15 were formed as minorities and another three became minorities while in power. It is their relative rarity since 1989 that has been the aberration. As the party system fragments, they will become common again.