Is a return to Stormont at last on the cards for Jeffrey Donaldson and the DUP?

There is, to paraphrase Sherlock Holmes, nothing so instructive as the unexpectedly significant. So, when DUP leader Jeffrey Donaldson wrote in the News Letter on Thursday, accusing Wednesday’s editorial of being “defeatist and negative”, I took notice. Donaldson was under no pressure whatsoever to respond and he knew how his internal and external opponents would interpret it: as a likely preparation for a return to Stormont.

The News Letter – the world’s oldest continuously published daily English language newspaper – remains Northern Ireland’s main media voice of unionism and loyalism and it still has considerable influence across its political and electoral bases. On Wednesday its editorial noted: “The powers that be have been steering the DUP towards a return to Stormont… The party is clearly reorientating for a Stormont return… unionist options are poor but if a government paper pledge leads to a return, few unionists will believe there has been a real victory.”

A few months ago, the DUP press office would have issued a speedy response to that sort of editorial. It would have dismissed it and insisted there was no reorientating and no intention of being fobbed off with a paper pledge. This time, though, Donaldson himself replied and made a number of very significant points: “support for the union was at its highest in NI when we had fully functioning devolution”; “unionists need to broaden support for the union, and this will not be achieved by retreating to the narrow ground implicit in the editorial”; “our system of government is far from perfect and when it returns, we must collectively dedicate ourselves to ensuring – even when it is difficult – that decisions are taken that make a real difference to the lives of the people we represent”; “time and again, Westminster has imposed laws upon us that are not in tune with the needs or wishes of the people of NI”; “NI is a distinct place with its own sense of identity and values. Having no say in our future will not be a recipe for success.”

[ Jeffrey Donaldson’s admission about direct rule reflects unionism’s tough choices ]

[ DUP conference: Jeffrey Donaldson delivers case for Stormont return to party faithful ]

It was one of the most significant – and unexpected – defences of devolution I have read for a long time. Crucially, it was also a reminder that direct rule had rarely done any favours for unionism in the past and it was unlikely to be any different this time. Indeed, there wouldn’t in fact be a return to direct rule, because it would be impossible for a UK government to make any sort of decision without the imprimatur of Sinn Féin, now the North’s largest party.

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Donaldson’s response can also be read as an acknowledgment that the Windsor Framework will, for all intents and purposes, remain much the same as it is now. It will be implemented with or without a functioning assembly and executive, meaning that the DUP’s refusal to return will leave it – and unionism generally – in a limbo where it has no power base in the North, little impact in Westminster and even less input into how the North is governed. A confirmation of the News Letter’s view that “unionist options are poor”.

Donaldson has internal and external opponents, but when the party is strong it is willing to face down opposition

I’ve argued for some time – including in this newspaper – that the DUP would, sooner or later, have to make a choice between imperfect devolution and imperfect direct rule: what poet Louis MacNeice might have described as the choice between authentic mammon and a bogus god. I think that point has been reached.

The key players in the DUP’s leadership team likely know the contents of the UK government’s final offer: the last piece of which we may hear in the King’s Speech during the state opening of parliament on Tuesday. Donaldson, I think, is now prepared to seek the support of his party to return to the assembly and appoint a deputy first minister, alongside Sinn Féin’s First Minister, Michelle O’Neill.

He has a number of things in his favour. An opinion poll in August 2021, a few weeks after he became leader, made for gloomy reading; with the Democratic Unionist Party at 13 per cent, behind its two main unionist rivals, the Ulster Unionist Party (16 per cent) and Traditional Unionist Voice (14 per cent). Polling this weekend has the DUP at 28 per cent, more than double the combined UUP/TUV 12 per cent. That’s the strongest it has been since 2019 and history suggests that the DUP is willing to take potential risks when it feels strong.

[ NI visit by US economic delegation should ‘act as a spur’ to restore Stormont, O’Neill says ]

[ Sinn Féin would hike taxes on the better off. Is that good or bad for the economy? ]

Yes, Donaldson has internal and external opponents, but when the party is strong it is willing to face down opposition. The biggest decision it has had to make since 1998 was the one to form an executive with Ian Paisley and Martin McGuinness in the top-dog roles in May 2007. There were internal tensions but the party moved ahead and the only significant loss was Jim Allister who, a few months later formed the TUV. But that party has never been able to move beyond pain-in-the-side status and I don’t see that changing.

A general election is due within a year. Donaldson’s opponents don’t really have an alternative which goes much beyond “keep saying no” and even voters uncomfortable with a return to Stormont won’t want to gift any seats to Alliance or Sinn Féin, especially if they reckon no anti-framework rival can win.

UUP leader Doug Beattie – who has regular contact and a good relationship with Donaldson – is telling unionism to look at the benefits of the framework in terms of UK/US/EU relationships. The UUP would vote for a DUP deputy first minister, giving Donaldson a big unionist majority behind a return if that is the route he opts for.

Donaldson has a fair chance of carrying the day if he seeks the party’s approval to return. He believes that’s a better risk than allowing devolution to die and hoping that circumstances will, under soi-disant direct rule, swing in the DUP’s favour at some point way, way down the line. It still leaves him with two other risks: a rupturing across unionism if he wins, or his immediate resignation if he loses. Whatever he does, this is now the defining moment of his political career.

Alex Kane is a commentator based in Belfast. He was formerly director of communications for the Ulster Unionist Party