Pat Leahy: Five things that will shape Irish politics this autumn and winter

It has been a quiet month since the temporary cessation of political hostilities in late July when everyone began what is likely to be their last long break until the far side of the next general election. No harm; by this time next year, we’ll all be on election watch.

My guess is that the Taoiseach Leo Varadkar – whose call it is, ultimately – probably hasn’t made up his mind when polling day will be. But unlike the last time he faced this decision, he will want to be in a position to go early if the auguries look propitious. That will mean being more or less ready for an election in the first half of next year.

There will be a lot of hot talk about an election next spring or early summer, perhaps to precede or even coincide with the local and European elections due in early June. I think October of next year, or holding out to the very end in March 2025, are more realistic time frames. But either way, things will begin to crank into gear next week. As ever, politics will be a mix of trying to plan for the medium and long term, while dealing with the challenges that every day throws up. So here are five things to watch out for in the political term to come:

1. Constituency reviews

Nothing is more important to politicians right now. Next Wednesday the new Electoral Commission will announce its review of the constituency boundaries, adding somewhere between 11 and 21 new TDs and revising the shape and seat numbers of many constituencies. This may have profound implications for many TDs and aspirant candidates. While the system will remain broadly representative, it could hand significant advantages to individual candidates, and marginal advantages – and disadvantages – to some parties. And in tight Irish elections, marginal advantages are often decisive.

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2. Coalition relations

Relations between the Government parties were going through a bumpy patch in July. This is not just because people have been inattentive to their maintenance. It’s because there are – as you would expect – serious policy and cultural differences between the Greens on one side and Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael on the other. These feature in various disputes about roads projects – which the FFers and FGers love, and the Greens hate.

[ Buckle up. The general election campaign is about to begin ]

Expect questions too on neutrality – the revelation in The Irish Times last week that Irish troops are to be involved in some weapons training with Ukrainian troops is in apparent conflict with all the assurances from Government that Ireland’s assistance to the embattled country is strictly non-lethal. It is possible, I suppose, that the Ukrainians are being trained to use the weapons in a non-lethal fashion, though that would rather defeat the purpose. The issue will certainly be raised in the Dáil, to the discomfort of at least some Green TDs, and many members.

There are also long-delayed decisions on land use as part of the Climate Action Plan that will be difficult. These divisions are tricky for the Government because they straddle one of its genuine fault lines, delineating the common ground between what the Greens are in power to achieve, and what the others can live with.

3. Micheál’s dilemma

Will he stay or will he go (to Brussels)? The group of Fianna Fáil TDs who were frequently critical of Micheál Martin’s leadership have been strangely quiet so far this year, though there are whispers of backbenchers meeting over the summer. They will not remain so reticent forever. For a start, they will want to know (not entirely unreasonably) if he really intends to lead them into an election that could happen within 12 months. He is likely to face some pretty direct questions on the subject. And the inevitable question of Martin’s future begs another very obvious question: if not him, then who? The contenders will soon have to start making their intentions clear. Michael McGrath is edging into the heir apparent space, but he will hardly be unchallenged for it.

4. Shinner winners?

Sinn Féin begins the new Dáil term in a now familiar position – utterly dominating the Opposition and with a hefty polling lead over each of its main Government rivals. We are approaching the point, though, that the party – if it is to sweep the boards at the next election – will have to close the deal with the wavering voters who drifted towards it in the past four years. It will, in other words, have to spell out what “change” will mean in concrete terms. Unless it can do that convincingly, at least part of the new support will remain soft, and therefore unreliable.

[ Inside Sinn Féin: Who really makes the big decisions in Ireland’s most popular party? ]

The party will await the return of its leader Mary Lou McDonald to the front line with some impatience. She underwent an operation in late June and was recuperating in July. Last week, the party declined repeated requests to say if she will be back when the Dáil returns on September 20th. It will hope fervently that she will; much of the new support that the party has secured in recent years flows through her remarkable ability to appeal to a broad range of voters.

5. Issues, not politics

It is the essential insight of politics to realise that much of what passes for political debate passes over the heads of voters who are just not that interested in it. As the election looms, it is the places where politics touches their lives to which voters pay most attention: housing, the cost of living, crime, the economy. The parties that focus on these are the ones that will get their attention.