Pat Leahy: There’s life in Fianna Fáil yet, but big choices lie ahead

Cat’s away, mice play. Tánaiste Micheál Martin was en route from the Ukraine Reconstruction Conference in London to Cork for the following morning’s foreign policy forum so he missed what is usually, no doubt, the highlight of his week – the parliamentary party meeting on Wednesday evening.

Fianna Fáil TDs and senators used the opportunity to unburden themselves of some thoughts – emphasising their support and the support of the organisation as a whole for Irish neutrality, and suggesting that Martin should appoint a deputy leader.

One of those present had the temerity to suggest to Jack Horgan-Jones that all this would drive the Dear Leader “doolally” – “and him trying to sort out his Nato meetings”, added another, clearly delighting in the mischievousness of it all.

Actually, I doubt the Dear Leader was all that put out. He has been telling anyone who would listen – though clearly the President wouldn’t – that he doesn’t intend to change the policy of neutrality and he has no intention of joining Nato. If his parliamentary party wants to shout in agreement, that’s likely to be okay by him.

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Party honchos at all levels of eminence and none nearly choked on their rashers and soft runny eggs when they opened their Saturday Irish Times to see the party described as decrepit, geriatric, backward and incoherent

He’ll be less enamoured of the desire for a deputy leader, seeing it – correctly – as an attempt to raise the subject of his own leadership, and its uncertain duration. But the episode at least demonstrated some signs of life in the party.

There have been a few other signs of late, too. Following its decent performance in last week’s Irish Times/Ipsos opinion poll, party honchos at all levels of eminence and none nearly choked on their rashers and soft runny eggs when they opened their Saturday Irish Times to see the party described as decrepit, geriatric, backward and incoherent. To the question of who Fianna Fáil is for, Jack Sheehan wrote, “the answer appears to be a steadily dwindling, increasingly regionalised demographic”.

The WhatsApp groups nearly combusted in indignation. We were inundated with howls of outrage, and what have you. The backlash suggested an organisation with a bit of fight in it yet. In the event, the Tánaiste selected himself to address the wounded pride of the soldiers of the legion of the rearguard. “Fianna Fáil is a progressive republican party which rejects the failed and destructive idea that you must conform to the traditional left/right ideology,” he trumpeted in an oped on Thursday.

There are worse problems than having lots of older voters; in fact, they tend to turn out on election day rather more reliably than younger voters

The Tánaiste didn’t address Fianna Fáil’s demographic problem, which has been long commented on. But politicians think about the next election, not four elections ahead. There are worse problems than having lots of older voters; in fact, they tend to turn out on election day rather more reliably than younger voters. Sure, it’s a problem in the long run. But in the long run, as John Maynard Keynes noted, we’re all dead.

All right shape

Fianna Fáil is actually in all right shape at the moment. It has weathered the great midterm threat that this Coalition arrangement always freighted – that Fine Gael would dominate the administration and Fianna Fáil would slide into obscurity once Micheál Martin departed the Taoiseach’s office and Leo Varadkar stepped into the spotlight again.

In fact, the opposite has happened. Martin has been almost as prominent as Tánaiste as he was when Taoiseach; and his adult-in-the-room persona has only been emphasised by Varadkar’s eccentric forays. Michael McGrath has maintained his partnership with Paschal Donohoe and exudes certainty and unflappability, a very deliberate safe pair of hands. The way things look now, if anyone is going to take a hiding from the voters, it’s their partners in Government. Fianna Fáil can see this, and Fine Gael can see it too.

But before the next election comes, the party faces two huge choices, separate but related, which will have a great bearing on the future of the party, and perhaps the country.

The first is who leads the party into the next election and beyond; the second is whether it will do a coalition deal with Sinn Féin. As far as I can tell, nobody has a clue what the answer to either of these is. That is not really sustainable for all that much longer.

Martin says repeatedly that he intends to lead the party into the next election – as he must continue to do, until such time as the plan changes. There is a view held by some long-time Martin observers that he will resign this time next year and depart for Brussels, where he has been spoken of as a possible successor to Charles Michel as President of the European Council.

That prospect depends on how things fall in the game of musical chairs for the top EU jobs, and many of the factors are outside Martin’s control. But the Irish nomination to the European Commission, also due next year, is very much within his control, as long as he remains leader of Fianna Fáil. My understanding is that under the Coalition agreement, it’s a Fianna Fáil gig.

Martin may not have decided for sure yet. Maybe won’t until this time next year. But if he’s going to go, he needs to make some preparations for the party’s life without him. He is by some distance its biggest asset, and if he intends to skip off to Brussels, the party is going to have to figure out how to manage without him. And, especially, who is going to lead it.

Because that leader is going to have a very significant decision to make. A Sinn Féin-led coalition of the left encompassing everyone – or nearly everyone – except Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael is perhaps a mathematical possibility (even if a remote one) but I think it’s a political near-impossibility. Sinn Féin will need Fianna Fáil. So this Dear Leader or the next one will have to decide where he or she stands on that. Big choices lie ahead.