It’s abortion, stupid. How Democrats can win the US presidential election in 2024

It’s abortion, stupid. Well, at least in part. The United States will never know what the outcome of referendums on abortion at scale would have looked like this year, but they should prepare for that in run-up to the presidential election in 2024. Abortion was on the ballot in five states during this week’s midterms: California, Kentucky, Michigan, Montana and Vermont. What would happen if that took place ten-fold?

It has been clear since the Kansas abortion referendum in August, that abortion on the ballot drives pro-choice voter turnout. And although abortion is to some degree a non-partisan issue, that turnout will disproportionately benefit the Democratic Party. You can’t build a movement on inflation, but you can build one on reproductive rights.

At the time of writing, there were pro-choice victories in the referendums in Vermont, Michigan, and California. Kentucky looks like another pro-choice victory, and it looks like another pro-choice win will come to pass in Montana. If both of those conservative states turn out pro-choice victories, then Democrat strategists will realise that even anti-abortion ballots can work as a strategy.

The criticisms of the Democrats campaigning on abortion are only true if you’re coming from the perspective that they didn’t campaign on it enough. A decentralised nationwide movement could have been built that could have seen the Democratic Party win the House and the Senate with room to spare. They now have two years to build that movement, and change the trajectory of the country.

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A pipeline to political engagement and voter mobilisation is ballot initiatives through citizen petitioning. So there’s the first piece of grassroots mobilisation: creating engagement through signature-gathering. The Democrats need to get abortion votes on the ballot in as many states as possible in 2024, in whatever way they can.

Centrist “wisdom” says to sit on the fence. But that’s not a strategy, it’s avoidance. Taking action means getting off the fence. In a culture underscored by racism, foreground the issue that Black women are driving. In a culture where misogyny is so prevalent, fight a feminist battle. In a culture so heavily influenced by religious fundamentalism, centre the issue religious fundamentalists obsess over.

In a country increasingly influenced by Catholic fundamentalism, go for the issue conservative Catholics are trying to leverage to seed division, and fight it, hard. At a time when a lot of that Catholicism is Irish-American, learn from Ireland, a progressive country where huge social change has happened in referendums on LGBTQ+ rights and abortion rights.

It’s not the only way for Democrats to win in 2024, but it is an obvious, and arguably the most effective one. If the Democrats lead the Republicans into a dogfight on abortion while movement-building in the background, Republicans will end up having to defend abortion policies – because they’ll be on the ballot – and that will turn many voters away from their candidates.

For voters who are already anti-choice, this won’t matter. But most American voters are pro-choice. There is also a generational shift occurring, and the youth vote, in particular the young female and queer vote, is overwhelmingly pro-choice.

While many perceive abortion to be a divisive issue, it can actually be a unifying one. It was in Ireland, much to the world’s surprise, because of how sophisticated, diverse, and the campaigning was. Time and time again, the Democratic Party appeases and fails to take a fighting stance. The stakes are too high in American democracy now. They need to listen to and support the people whose activism is driving progress. That’s racial justice activism, and it’s abortion activism, and both are intertwined.

The reproductive rights movement in the United States is disparate and non-cohesive, but that doesn’t need to be a cause for frustration or division or infighting. Movement-building is about tools, not rules. Empower people in their own communities, with their own tactics, in their own vocabulary. You don’t need a hierarchical structure; you need a decentralised, lateral one. Resource organising where it’s happening, instigate it where it isn’t.

In the Irish context, many media platforms and commentators told campaigners that we were doing things wrong, and then when we won tried to explain to us how we did it right. This is frustrating, but it’s normal for the status-quo not to understand feminist activist strategy and tactics. Ignore them. We knew what we were doing was right and was working. In the words of Audre Lorde, the master’s tools will never dismantle the master’s house.

If wanting to restrict abortion was going to be a big vote-getter in the US in 2022, the Republican Party would have made it a big issue. But they didn’t. They knew it wouldn’t help them win.

Strangely, Donald Trump’s showboating on running in 2024 hasn’t created the sort of visceral reaction his attention-seeking used to. There is a chance that he is losing cultural relevance, but the Republicans are still stuck with Trumpism.

Ron DeSantis, victor in the Florida governor race, is firmly anti-choice and now a serious potential presidential candidate following his re-election. If he runs, and if Democrats have been smart enough to resource a national pro-choice movement, abortion could be their opponent’s biggest weak spot. It’s time for the Democrats to hit the Republicans where it hurts, and that’s with a woman’s vote, in particular Black women, and with a movement that can motivate the country, build passion, and inspire people. This will create, as it did in Ireland, an enduring progressive political legacy.