Pat Leahy: An autumn of extreme national grumpiness beckons

We are in a peculiar political and psychological moment now, a quiescence before inevitable hard times – politically, economically and environmentally. For all the lassitude of the mid-summer, and as politicians prepare for the only real break they get all year, this week only hardened the certainty on each of those fronts.

Europe was a furnace. Wildfires raged, rivers ran dry, crops were parched. Hundreds died as cities sweltered in the extreme heat. In Madrid, El País reported, a city cleaning employee collapsed from heatstroke in the street. When emergency responders arrived, they found he had a body temperature of 41.6 degrees. They applied ice to his armpits, groin, and the back of his neck, but he did not regain consciousness, and he died later in hospital.

In the United Kingdom, runways melted, railways buckled and fires scorched the edges of London. In Ireland, testament to our geographic good fortune, temperatures nudged records around 30 degrees; in London, it hit 40: hell of a difference. There’s more and worse to come, climate scientists and meteorologists say, and maybe soon.

All governments need to very quickly step up their responses to the changing climate on two fronts: they need to prepare for the extreme weather conditions (such as heatwaves, but not limited to that) that scientists say are now inevitable, and they need to cut emissions of greenhouse gases. That will, at some point, stop the problem from getting worse. This week, the Government here received warnings from official bodies that it was not doing enough on either front.

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The Climate Change Advisory Council said on Wednesday that Ireland must do more to prepare for heatwaves, fierce storms and flooding. The following day, the Environmental Protection Agency said that instead of coming down, Ireland’s emissions of greenhouse gases continued to increase last year and therefore deeper cuts to emissions would be needed to hit the required targets.

Meanwhile, Ministers continue to wrangle over the level of emissions cuts that each sector will have to implement. Agriculture makes strong arguments for being a special case, but some analysts, including UCC professor Hannah Daly, warn that if agriculture only does its base level of 22 per cent, then the much greater reductions required of other sectors to halve emissions by 2030 will not be achievable.

This weekend, Eamon Ryan and Charlie McConalogue are still wrestling with the challenge of getting an agreement that is sufficient to satisfy Green demands for meaningful and achievable reductions in emissions, but not so onerous that it will put thousands of farmers on the streets and Fianna Fáil/Fine Gael backbenchers into revolt.

Across Government meanwhile, there is a growing sense that the targets might be unrealistic, but sure we’ll do the best we can. Leo Varadkar – who will be taoiseach in five months, remember – told Matt Cooper on Wednesday: “These targets are very ambitious and we have to do everything we can to achieve them. But we’re not going to penalise and punish people if they can’t be achieved.” If that view takes hold in the Fine Gael/Fianna Fáil side of the Coalition, its survival will be imperilled.

It’s not the only political danger. The traditional summer agitation against Micheál Martin’s leadership of Fianna Fáil arrived on cue as the Dáil rose for the summer break, with several TDs and Senators reportedly telling the Irish Daily Mail that Martin would have to announce in the autumn that he would depart as leader when he ceases to be Taoiseach, or he would be pushed over the cliff. One of the sticks wielded by the rebels is a threat not to vote for Varadkar as taoiseach in December unless Martin does as they wish. This is possible, I suppose, but it would be a violation of an agreement endorsed by more than 80 per cent of the Fianna Fáil membership. So, unlikely.

One of the dissidents told the Mail that Martin “retains the respect of many” but added, “when he has served his term as Taoiseach he must step back and allow us rally to save enough seats in a general election to remain a viable political force”.

This is a pretty common view in the Fianna Fáil parliamentary party; neither the wing that viscerally detests Martin nor the less excitable middle ground believes that he will lead them into the next election. But nobody has put forward a demonstrably better alternative. And what is this “rally”? Is it just fights with Fine Gael and the Greens? Who would lead it? How does it save more seats?

Like all future events, the end of Martin’s leadership inevitably grows closer. There are two ways that could happen – in a process that is planned, managed, constructive and outward-facing, or in one that is internecine, solipsistic, chaotic and bitter. Right now, all the smart money is on the latter. That would be destabilising – and perhaps destructive – of the Government. And also of Fianna Fáil.

Finally, the week brought the inevitable interest rate increase from the European Central Bank, with the clear signal that more is to come. That will hit the homeowners who are the natural base for the Government parties, and further intensify the cost-of-living squeeze. Not surprisingly, consumer sentiment is at a near two-year low. There is a near certainty for many people that their disposable income and living standards are due to decline, at least temporarily. Those in the middle may be the most vocal, but those at the margins will feel it most acutely. An autumn of extreme national grumpiness beckons.

Politicians, especially Government Ministers, packing their bags next week should make sure they enjoy their holidays. Because there’s trouble coming down the tracks, that’s for sure.