Newton Emerson: Donaldson finds himself hoist on DUP petard

The DUP will be quietly horrified by a poll in Tuesday’s Belfast Telegraph showing most unionist voters agree with the party.

Three-quarters of unionists support its boycott of Stormont until the Brexit protocol is changed or removed, according to the LucidTalk poll, conducted in the final week of May. That figure rises to 92 per cent of DUP voters. One-third of UUP supporters and 99 per cent of TUV supporters concur.

This is a calamitous predicament for Sir Jeffrey Donaldson, the DUP leader. He will find it far harder than planned to march unionism back down the hill his party has marched it up.

The figures are worse on closer inspection. Of the 92 per cent of DUP supporters backing the boycott, 40 per cent agree the party should not return to Stormont unless the protocol is “removed completely”.

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Sir Jeffrey has never promised this. He has always restricted his demand to removal of “the sea border”, leaving wriggle room to sell a realistic outcome of UK-EU talks.

The distinction is hardly subtle and has been widely noted. It fits the UK’s language of a “green channel” and the EU’s of an “express lane” in their proposals for a compromise.

Stormont’s caretaker period expires at the end of October, after which another election must be called

The DUP might have hoped its supporters would have taken the hint and internalised the requisite pragmatism or cynicism. Those who could not should have defected to the TUV. Its leader, Jim Allister, spent months before May’s election mocking Sir Jeffrey’s linguistic evasions. Yet 40 per cent of voters who stuck with the DUP in May are still somehow under the impression that complete removal of the protocol is the party’s goal and a plausible outcome.

In further bad news, LucidTalk’s questions on the boycott asked about “stopping” both the executive and the assembly. The DUP had only intended to block the executive – with even that a limited protest, as ministers will remain in a caretaker capacity. The assembly was to be left in operation to reassure voters they were not being denied basic governance during a cost-of-living crisis. This was well signposted before the election.

Bombastic statement

But Allister embarrassed the DUP into crashing the assembly as well, with a bombastic post-election statement. Now it transpires that most DUP supporters either share the TUV leader’s view of what a boycott entails, or are at least indifferent to the degrees of disruption the DUP thought would concern unionist voters.

Monday’s low vote of confidence in Boris Johnson should not scupper or much delay the legislation to disapply parts of the protocol, designed and timed by the British government to ease the party back into office.

A weakened prime minister may have to give the bill extra urgency to shore up his internal support. Leadership rivals could compete to demonstrate their opposition to the protocol. All this will help the DUP assure unionist voters progress is being made.

But the unionist electorate’s expectations of progress are higher and more hardline than plans had anticipated. In the campaign for May’s election, the DUP over-sold what a boycott could achieve and too many people bought it.

The legislation will need to be impressively crafted to survive a year of Westminster chaos. Early reports indicate it is a bizarre mess

Now time is short: Stormont’s caretaker period expires at the end of October, after which another election must be called. The DUP needs a protocol deal by then, whether or not it wants to go back to the polls.

The bill could take a year to get through Westminster, if it passes at all.

So September, after Stormont’s summer recess, was assumed to be the point when fudge must be served, with London and Brussels cooking up the outline of a compromise and the DUP proclaiming it sufficient and restoring the executive. An earlier restoration of the assembly could build confidence along the way.

Hard sell

Tuesday’s poll shows even this fortuitous circumstance would be a very hard sell to unionist voters. There are also reasons why a weakened prime minister undermines the plan. Brussels will be inclined to wait and see how the Tory drama unfolds, rather than offering compromises or threatening retaliation, either of which could be portrayed as signs of progress from a unionist perspective.

Rebellious Conservatives could oppose the bill “to keep poking Boris Johnson in the eye”, as DUP MP Sammy Wilson fretted this week.

The legislation will need to be impressively crafted to survive a year of Westminster chaos. Early reports indicate it is a bizarre mess, requiring input from Northern Ireland’s business groups, who have condemned it already.

The DUP has been lobbying for the bill to be fast-tracked, which in theory could have it on the statute books before Westminster’s July 21 summer recess.

After digesting Tuesday’s poll, the DUP briefed it will not return to Stormont until the bill has passed. Thanks to the party’s own backfiring manoeuvres, it will be extraordinarily difficult for it to settle for anything less.