Warning on ribbon development

There will be continued pressure on the housing market in the Dublin region, at least until 2006, according to the report, which recommends that steps be taken by the Government to "prevent the emergence of further ribbon development".

Housing growth should, it says, be concentrated around already exiting urban areas.

"This, apart from reducing traffic flows, will also allow for the efficient provision of public services to individuals."

The population of the region encompassed in the report - which takes in counties Wicklow, Kildare and Meath as well as Dublin - is expected to reach 1.6 million by 2006. This is an increase from 1.4 million in 1996. This increase, coupled with a decrease in household size, means that a substantial number of additional housing units are going to be required, "thus sustaining pressure on the housing market".

The populations of the counties in the region are growing at different rates, with the population of the Dublin county borough and Dun Laoighaire-Rathdown growing relatively slowly. Other counties are growing much faster, the report finds. The largest percentage increase in household numbers is expected in Co Meath, while the mid-east region - the Co Kildare/Blanchardstown/Tallaght area - is expected to see the second-highest increase. Co Meath had 31,592 households in 1996 and is expected to have 43,496 in 2006, an increase of 37.7 per cent. The mid-east, where the number of households is predicted to increase from 100,980 in 1996 to 131,194 in 2006, will experience an increase of 29.9 per cent.

This compares with an expected increase for the whole region of 18.1 per cent.

There is also a marked difference in the age profiles of different areas. Dublin county borough and Dun Laoighaire-Rathdown have a lower proportion of young people and a higher proportion of older people while the opposite is the case for other counties. The percentage of people under 10 was highest in suburban areas.

"This has implications for the provision of public services such as schools for young people and geriatric care for older people."

The report says that as the rural areas of the mid-east region in particular tend to be farther away from larger centres their economic development may be hampered "due to the absence of scale effects both in terms of the labour market and the range of locally provided services". "In 1996 there were 47 urban centres with a population in excess of 1,000 persons. This suggests that rather than planning additional new urban centres the focus of development policy should be on strengthening the existing urban network."