The Dublin constituency that likes to be king-maker

IF Dublin West was a British constituency, Blair's boys would have targeted it years ago as a key marginal. In a series of dramatic election and by-election results over the past two decades, the constituency has been the making and unmaking of governments. This time promises to be no different.

A strong anti-establishment streak runs through the constituency and, thanks to the creation of vast new housing estates, the floating vote is huge.

With this kind of volatility, Dublin West could easily turn into a catastrophe for the Coalition, with the loss of one or even two ministerial seats a possibility. Alternatively, given a small swing to the Government and some favourable transfers, Fianna Fail could be pinned down to one seat, in which case Bertie Ahern may have to forget about becoming Taoiseach.

The only certainty now is that Fianna Fail's Brian Lenihan will romp home, possibly with up to 25 per cent of the first preferences. Mr Lenihan polled modestly in the by-election last year, when he beat off the challenge of independent Joe Higgins by only 250 votes, but has since consolidated his seat by meticulous constituency work.

The dogfight for the remaining seats will be intense. Much will depend on the performance of Mr Higgins, the militant socialist who stood on an anti-water-charges platform in the by-election. If he can rack up anything like the 20 per cent of first preferences achieved then, a seat is assured.

Opponents are quick to point out that the water charges issue is now largely resolved. "You had people in £500,000 houses in Castleknock voting for a Marxist, all over a £70 water charge. Well, that won't be happening in the general election," says one.

Mr Higgins should gain, though, from boundary changes which see the addition of 2,500 houses near his base in Corduff. Parts of Castleknock have also been added, to the constituency.

Labour's Joan Burton topped the poll in the last general election, but the party slumped to a disastrous 4 per cent in last year's by-election. As a junior Minister, Ms Burton has enjoyed a high profile over the past five years, though political opponents claim she lacks popularity locally.

Local polls show her climbing back to second place behind Mr Lenihan.

Dublin West might seem like natural Progressive Democrats territory, but the party has polled poorly in its last two outings. To counter this, the PDs have drafted in a defector from Fine Gael, Tom Morrissey, to replace their previous candidate, Sheila Terry. However, the dispute which arose over this manoeuvre has virtually eliminated the party's slim hopes of a seat.

Rows within Fianna Fail are almost a tradition in Dublin West, and the lack of warmth between the Lenihan clan and the other sitting party TD, Liam Lawlor, is as strong as ever. Mr Lawlor will be running his usual personalised campaign and hoping to perform another Houdini act. In the last general election he made it home by 50 votes.

Fianna Fail's official plan is to ensure that Mr Lenihan's surplus finds its way to Mr Lawlor and a third candidate, Finbarr Hanrahan. However, the party is also hoping to repeat its performance in the by-election when Mr Lenihan had transfers from Fine Gael and Labour.

Fine Gael suffered a hiding on its last two outings but worse might be coming. Local polls show Austin Currie struggling to keep his seat, and that was before the defection of Mr Morrissey. His running mate, Young Fine Gaeler Joanne Harmon, is regarded as a no-hoper.

For the Green Party, Paul Gogarty, a business journalist and singer/songwriter, stands an outside chance if the Green wave starts to swell.

Of the other candidates, Tomas MacGiolla, of the Workers' Party, is past his best electorally speaking. John McCann, of Sinn Fein, should poll respectably but will be hit by widespread apathy in disadvantaged estates such as Gallanstown and Neilstown, where the turnout can be as low as 11 per cent.

When the votes are counted, Mr Lenihan is likely to come out on top, Ms Burton will hold her seat, and Mr Higgins and Mr Lawlor will shade it over Mr Currie.