Leitrim faces another Dáil without a TD

The following are questions best directed at the unelected members of the Constituency Commission who draw up electoral boundaries.

What county had no TD in the last Dáil? What county is most likely not to have a TD in the next Dáil? What county faces the possibility of never having a TD while the status quo remains?

The answer in all three cases is Leitrim. In 2005 the commission broke up the old Sligo-Leitrim constituency and divided it into two constituencies Roscommon-South Leitrim and Sligo-North Leitrim.

Dire warnings that the partition would see no Leitrim TD elected were realised in the 2007 election when long-time incumbent John Ellis lost his seat.

After that the Save Leitrim campaign was set up and more than half of the submissions to the commission were related to the reunification of the county. The commission recognised the depth of feeling on the issue and then did the opposite of what Leitrim people had hoped for.

It responded in 2008 by further dividing Leitrim. It took 3,376 votes from South Leitrim which had almost a quota (25 per cent) and put them into North Leitrim which did not in a bid to even up the numbers.

Geographically Leitrim is a county divided in two by Lough Allen but the commission took areas that are in the south of the county notably Drumshambo and Leitrim village and put them into the Sligo-North Leitrim constituency.

Although the commission's remit is to keep county boundaries "as far as possible", it deemed it preferable to divide the county further than create a new constituency which involved Sligo, Leitrim and Cavan which would have been an alternative.

Of the 10 candidates from the three mainstream parties standing in both constituencies, only one is from Leitrim. There was uproar at the Fine Gael convention in November last year when a directive from head office meant there was no Leitrim candidate standing in the Sligo-North Leitrim constituency and many Leitrim delegates walked out.

Mohill-based solicitor Cllr Gerry Kilrane faced a walk-out of his own from a small number from Co Roscommon delegates when he was selected on the Fianna Fáil ticket to contest the election for Fianna Fáil with Ivan Connaughton who is based in south Roscommon.

Cllr Kilrane was first elected to the county council in 2009 bucking the anti Fianna Fáil trend nationally.

Personally popular, he is part of a new breed of Fianna Fáil politicians who have to suck up the party's unpopularity on the doorstep.

"Why don't you stand as an independent and we'll all vote for you?" asks one woman on the doorstep in his native town who laments the fact that Cllr Kilrane is standing for a party that she would not countenance voting for.

Cllr Kilrane's nomination means that Sinn Féin's Cllr Martin Kenny, who is based in Aughavas, will not get a free run in the Roscommon South Leitrim constituency.

There is no love lost between the pair and they clashed repeatedly last week when there was a discussion among the Leitrim candidates on Shannonside FM.

Cllr Kilrane says he is in favour of a new type of politics which moves away from the parish pump, where TDs are focused on national issues and where county boundaries do not matter, but, in the meantime, he is stuck with the current arrangement.

"The splitting of Leitrim has never been off the agenda, but I'm trying to tell the people of north Roscommon that I'm a viable candidate for them too," he says.

On the doorstep Cllr Kilrane expresses humility and does not deny that Fianna Fáil got a lot of things wrong.

"In politics people will forgive you if you make a mistake, but they won't forgive you if you don't own up to it," he says. "We have to admit to mistakes and apologise, but I'll never be an apologist for being a member of Fianna Fáil. I'm part of the new generation."

The economy is the big issue as it is elsewhere. One woman on the canvass says her daughter is about to emigrate to Australia and she knows a couple with four children who are uprooting lock, stock and barrel to Canada. Emigration is often the first resort and not the last in this county where those who leave outnumber those who stay.

In the north of the country 14 young people have emigrated from an area around Manorhamilton in recent weeks. "The impact goes way beyond the economic," says Sinn Féin general election candidate Cllr Michael Colreavy who is based in the town. "The spirit of an area is lost when young people emigrate."

Cllr Colreavy has the best outside chance of any Leitrim candidate. "We need 7,000 first preference votes for a fighting chance of the third seat and we have a realistic chance of hitting that," he says.

A poll for the Sligo Weekender shows him second on first preferences at 15 per cent and in with a shout of a seat.

In Roscommon-South Leitrim Cllr Kenny is on 10 per cent in internal polls putting him in joint third place with a number of other candidates.

Sinn Féin believes they have a chance in both constituencies and Deputy First Minister Martin McGuinness visited Carrick-on-Shannon on Saturday.

Cllr Kenny has been vociferous in stressing the national issues on the doorstep – most notably the party's contention that there should be no bailout of the banks.

Cllr Kenny maintains that the ultimate responsibility for Leitrim's partition lies with both Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael who voted to accept the changes recommended by the commission in a bid to keep Sinn Féin out.

Despite a high-profile visit by Fine Gael leader Enda Kenny to Carrick-on-Shannon during the campaign, his namesake is attempting to capitalise on the anger of Leitrim people about the division of the county and to direct it against both parties.

"In three-seat constituencies the big parties win all the seats. That's going to change next Saturday."

Although Cllr Kenny is in with the chance of the last seat, the smart money is on maverick independent Luke 'Ming' Flanagan who will have a substantial Roscommon vote.

The problem for both candidates is that Sinn Féin do not transfer well and transfers locally are likely to stay within the bigger countries especially when the shake-up comes for the last seat.

Given the relative population imbalances in both counties, the likeliest outcome is that three Roscommon, three Sligo and no Leitrim TDs will emerge at the end of this election as the commission had been warned would happen.

Cllr Colreavy is faced by independent candidate Gabriel McSharry who is also based in Manorhamilton. A lecturer in the region's tourism college, he quit the Labour party six years ago over the issue of Leitrim's partition.

Mr McSharry said the dishevelled state of the N16 road which runs through the constituency shows what happens when a county is deprived of representation.

"On the doorstep I'm hearing that people are still annoyed and upset about this. They believe the party system was central to the division of the country," he said. "Because of that our county is broken and the people have been left without our TD.

"It is another example in this country of parties being put before ordinary people. The people were not listened to. They were ignored and forgotten about."

Leitrim in numbers:

Roscommon South-Leitrim total population 74,384

Population of South Leitrim 2007 18,992 (24.4 per cent)

Population of South Leitrim 2011 15,616 (20.1 per cent)

Sligo North-Leitrim total population 74,228

Population of North Leitrim 2007 9958 (13.41 per cent)

Population of North Leitrim 2011 13,334 (18 per cent)