The odds on a Labour win in the Kildare by-election were cut dramatically yesterday, after a €200 gamble at a Naas bookmaker's shop.
Admittedly the syndicate comprised Pat Rabbitte, Emmet Stagg, and candidate Paddy MacNamara, who were probably acting on hope rather than information. But a cautious bookie's shop assistant still phoned head office before taking the bet and cutting the price by half a point, to 5/2.
The revised odds suggest a three-horse race to succeed Charlie McCreevy, who was dramatically unseated last year in the closing stages of the Father Seán Healy Handicap Hurdle. Labour are still third in the betting behind Leixlip Independent Catherine Murphy (even-money) and Fianna Fáil (7/4). The campaign has barely begun, however. And the presence in Naas of Avril Doyle - canvassing for Fine Gael - was a reminder that in equestrian sports, anything can happen.
This is a horsey constituency, but Labour's two-legs-good policies were attracting plenty of sympathy on Main Street. One of the first people the group met was a former social worker who contrasted the planned facelift for the Curragh racecourse with the state of the health service, and concluded: "I'd rather be a horse than a person under this Government." The sentiment was right on-message, until she also concluded that she wouldn't be voting. "I'd definitely consider him [ MacNamara] if they weren't going in with Fine Gael," she said.
Still, there were plenty of positive responses too. Like the woman who told them "I believe in you!" and urged them to fight for the disabled persons' grant. Or the man pushing a bike who declared himself to be 78 and a Labour supporter, and regretted only that he was too old to get car insurance. "At least I can still throw my leg over this," he said to Pat Rabbitte, who congratulated him: "It's not every man can still throw his leg over at 78."
Emmet Stagg was impressively enthusiastic about the prospect of having a second Labour TD in his constituency, telling everyone who'd listen that March 11th would be an opportunity to give the Government "a kick".
The message was relayed again when the group met a young woman pushing a pram, who complained of having been turned down four times for affordable housing. Even so, electioneering is not all about issues. The party leader was quickly persuaded by photographers to pose with the woman's two-year-old son, Joshua, who was in turn persuaded to share sweets with Mr Rabbitte. But ever the canny politician, Mr Rabbitte realised just in time that he was being photographed taking sweets off a child. Reacting swiftly, he fished out a €2 coin for Joshua to buy more.