Job losses slowing says Fás

The deterioration in the labour market eased considerably during the third quarter, according to a new report out today.

The Fás Quarterly Labour Market Commentary reveals that while the number of people signing on the Live Register has risen by 76 per cent year-on-year, the percentage of people joining the register during the third quarter slowed.

As a result, the unemployment rate rose at its slowest rate since 2007 during the quarter, from 12.1 per cent in June to 12.6 per cent in September.

Fás said it had experienced a 20 per cent increase in the number of vacancies between the second and third quarters of 2009.

Nonetheless, the latest data shows that while low-skilled employees have accounted for the majority of the job losses so far this year, the number of professionals seeking employment or training has risen by 84 per cent in the year to the end of September.

Younger people have been particularly hard hit by the recession with the number of graduates seeking employment or further training rising 60 per cent year-on-year. In addition, the number of new apprentices entering the workforce fell by 60 per cent during the first nine months of 2009 with construction-related apprentices down 72 per cent.

The unemployment rate among those aged between 15 to 19 years of age currently stands at 40 per cent while a third of those in the 20 to 24 years of age category are unemployed.

Overall, vacancies registered with Fás declined 35 per cent in the year to the end of September with declines occurring in all occupations except health and care service workers.

Fás said that while the some of the recent rise in vacancies can be attributed to seasonal factors, when taken with the Live Register trend, it does suggest a more general improvement in labour market conditions relative to the first half of the year.

The agency warns that despite some encouraging signs, the employment outlook for next year remains quite poor, given that the economy is expected to contract again in 2010.

"The expected decline in the numbers employed in 2010 is unlikely to translate into a commensurate increase in unemployment for a number of reasons including lower labour force participation and outward migration,” said Fás economist Brian McCormick.

He added that the unemployment outlook for next year will partly depend on the extent to which employers decide to cut jobs from full-time to part-time in order to avoid lay-offs. While this was a popular response to the recession during the first half of this year, the latest figures for part-time employment suggest that this 'buffer' effect may be beginning to wane.