ANALYSIS:A look at seven TDs whose support may be needed if the December 7th budget is to be passed
THE GOVERNMENT’S hopes of getting Dáil approval for the most draconian budget since the foundation of the State – with €6 billion in cuts and taxes – will depend on a small number of Fianna Fáil TDs and Independents whose votes are not guaranteed.
The Fianna Fáil/Green Party Coalition has a working majority of three at present. With the support of Minster for Health Mary Harney and two other Independent TDs – Michael Lowry and Jackie Healy-Rae – it currently commands the support of 82 TDs, with 79 Opposition votes. The majority will increase to four (83 to 79) or decrease to two (82 to 80) depending on the outcome of the Donegal byelection on November 25th.
Neither the support of Healy-Rae nor Lowry is guaranteed – both voted against the stag hunting ban before the summer recess. The situation is further complicated by the fact that three Fianna Fáil TDs are currently outside the parliamentary party, and that at least one Government backbencher has threatened to vote against the budget if either contributory or non-contributory old age pensions are reduced.
If the Government loses the Donegal South West byelection, the loss of one vote would result in a tie of 81 to 81 and the Ceann Comhairle Seamus Kirk would then have to use his casting vote.
These are the TDs currently supporting the Government upon whose votes Taoiseach Brian Cowen and Minister for Finance Brian Lenihan will be relying.
Mattie McGrath
Tipperary South
McGrath lost the Fianna Fáil whip over the stag hunting Bill. He has said he has been given “royal” treatment by Chief Whip’s office since.
His budget issues:Wants all public sector salaries to be capped at €200,000 and salaries of semi-State "fat cats" and politicians reduced.
McGrath says that maximum protection should be given for all those earning €50,000 or less.
He also wants pensioners protected.
He says he is outraged that senior public servants had pay cuts reversed by Brian Lenihan after last year’s budget.
“I am working on my own document and hope to meet Brian Lenihan this week. I cannot see myself voting for another budget like last year’s one.”
John McGuinness
Carlow-Kilkenny
McGuinness retains the whip but has been a vocal critic of Brian Cowen and of Tánaiste Mary Coughlan. But he has not voted against Government nor has he abstained.
His budget issues:"Like most people [in the Fianna Fáil parliamentary party], I am seriously concerned with a budget that might contain cutbacks for pensioners, both contributory and non-contributory. They should be protected as much as possible.
“The budget will also need some form of stimulus package for business. It could be an indirect one, such as reduction of local government charges.”
Michael Lowry
Tipperary North
Independent TD is one of two Independents who has a deal with the Taoiseach in return for support.
His budget issues:He said yesterday he will meet the Department of Finance at a later stage when it has completed its work on the budget.
He said he will then make his assessment on it. He indicated strongly yesterday that it was unlikely he would vote against the budget.
“Obviously with the crisis and financial difficulties, the national interest is paramount. There’s an obligation and a duty on the Opposition to look towards solutions.
“I hope there is some form of consensus that would develop nearer to the budget.”
Jackie Healy-Rae
Kerry South
The second of the two Independents supporting the Government.
His budget issues:Healy-Rae's son Michael said yesterday that the Kerry South Deputy's support was contingent on delivery of the deal agreed with then taoiseach Bertie Ahern in 2007.
It includes commitments to Kenmare Hospital as well as roads.
Michael Healy-Rae said he and his father met Taoiseach Brian Cowen yesterday.
“We raised concerns with regard to any proposal to cut the old age pension and carers’ allowances. We raised those in a genuine way,” he said.
Jimmy Devins
Sligo-North Leitrim
Sligo GP and former minister of state relinquished the party whip because of the reduction in cancer services in Sligo General Hospital.
His budget issues:"I have voted with the Government on most issues but still judge every issue on its merits. The less well-off need to be protected. I am also concerned about health areas.
“It’s too early to say. I have voted consistently with the Government, but I have to look at things.”
Eamon Scanlon
Sligo-North Leitrim
He lost the Fianna Fáil parliamentary party whip after opposing downgrading of services at Sligo General Hospital.
His budget issues:Will support it. "The times has come for people to put the country before their own personal, or party, interest."
Noel O’Flynn
Cork North Central
O’Flynn has been the most vocal within Fianna Fáil opposing any reductions in the old age pension.
His budget issues:Pensions. "I cannot accept that element of the budget. I hope it will not be included. If it is included, I will resign the whip on the day and vote against it," he said. Mr O'Flynn met Mr Lenihan last month to make him aware of his views.
If there are cuts in pensions, his threat to resign the whip and vote against the budget is real.