BRITISH SCIENCE FESTIVAL: PADANG IN western Sumatra and its 850,000 inhabitants sit on a coastline just 150km away from where the next big Indian Ocean earthquake is expected to occur.
An Irish scientist has helped a group there to alert the public to the danger and to make plans for whenever an earthquake strikes.
Up to half a million people in Padang could be swept away given that most of the city lies less than 10m above sea level, said John McCloskey, professor of geophysics at the University of Ulster in Coleraine.
“The people in Padang had no idea they were in the firing line for a tsunami.”
Prof McCloskey made headlines just months after the huge St Stephen’s Day earthquake and the tsunami it unleashed, an event that claimed more than 230,000 lives. He published research the following March warning another earthquake would follow and his predictions were proved correct less than two weeks later.
Yesterday he participated in a session at the British Science Festival in Birmingham looking at earthquake prediction. Speaking afterwards, he described the hidden offshore danger and his own efforts to help people to prepare for it.
The next earthquake will occur in a break or fault in the Earth’s surface where two slabs of the crust crush against one another, the Mentawai Segment just off the coast of Sumatra, he said.
This was just a part of the huge Sunda Megathrust Fault along which the St Stephen’s Day and subsequent earthquakes all occurred.
Prof McCloskey’s research in Sumatra brought him in touch with Patra Rina Dewi, who also feared there could be major loss of life in Padang should an earthquake occur.
“It is face on to the place where we think the next megathrust event will occur,” said Prof McCloskey. “It is like taking 10 billion tonnes of water and dropping it into the ocean,” he said.
Ms Dewi talked to Prof McCloskey and to a former Caltech geophysicist Kerry Sieh. Ms Dewi then began a campaign to inform the public and develop ways to reduce loss of life should a tsunami occur.
She formed Kogami, a local NGO that has developed a substantial effort in support of preparedness. “She has become a focus. She is changing government policy, she is making government listen,” Prof McCloskey said.
Ms Dewi’s responses were based on the science behind tsunamis, but depend on people making good choices to help them survive.
The initial quake would cause significant damage, but residents would then have only 30 minutes to escape to higher ground. Students evacuated from schools were shown how to carry their bags on their heads to protect against falling masonry, he said.
Ms Dewi produced a map of the city showing red areas likely to be submerged, yellow areas where the water might reach and green areas indicating a safe distance from the coast, he said.
So impressed was Prof McCloskey that he decided to contact Irish aid agency Concern. He won funding to bring agency staff to Padang. “I wanted to see how things are being done in Padang and if they could be adapted . . . and incorporated into Concern’s programme development,” he said.
Prof McCloskey’s next step is to set up a panel involving NGOs and scientists to develop how aid agencies might respond to a tsunami. Many of these agencies work in earthquake zones, allowing them to prepare on the basis of risk assessments by the scientists.