Majority of voters in North want Stormont restored

A majority of voters in the North want to see the Stormont executive back up and running regardless of outstanding issues over the Northern Ireland protocol, a poll for Queen’s University Belfast shows.

Just three in 10 people believe the power-sharing administration should not be restored until the post-Brexit trading arrangement is scrapped altogether, while more than twice that many (66 per cent) want an executive formed immediately.

The latest Lucid Talk poll, for Queen’s, was carried out between October 7th and 10th, and was published Thursday, a day before the deadline for fresh elections being called in the absence of a functioning executive.

The Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) is frustrating efforts by all other main political parties to get Stormont up and running after May’s elections, in protest at the Northern Ireland protocol.

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[ Analysis: Clock is ticking towards Northern Ireland election ]

The Northern Ireland Assembly meets on Thursday at noon – 12 hours before the deadline – in an unlikely attempt to form an executive, as the DUP insists it will continue to block an administration until its demands over the protocol are met.

Britain’s Northern secretary Chris Heaton Harris has said he will call an election – which the North’s chief electoral officer said will cost more than £6.5 million – if there is no agreement by Friday.

The poll also found a majority (53 per cent) of voters in the North view the protocol as positive for the economy, with an even greater proportion (63 per cent) believing it offers the region unique opportunities to benefit the economy.

A majority (59 per cent) is also opposed to the British government taking unilateral action to suspend elements of the protocol, as allowed for under the controversial Northern Ireland Protocol Bill advancing its way through Westminster.

Almost three-quarters (71 per cent) think that a negotiated settlement on outstanding issues between London and Brussels is the best way forward.

The protocol was brokered by Britain and the EU as a result of Brexit to prevent a hard border on the island of Ireland, but some unionists say it undermines the North’s place in the UK by establishing a de-facto border for goods in the Irish Sea.

While most voters believe it has economic advantages, a majority is also concerned about its political implications (62 per cent) and its negative impact on British-Irish relations (60 per cent).

Less than half the electorate (49 per cent) believe it has a negative impact on the North’s constitutional place within the UK, and less again (47 per cent) think it negatively affects the region’s position in the UK internal market.

The overwhelming majority of voters (84 per cent) distrust the UK government in managing the North’s interests when it comes to the protocol, compared to 43 per cent distrusting the EU, the same proportion who distrust the Irish Government.

Trust in the Irish Government has grown over recent polls.

The DUP is the most distrusted political party over the issue (67 per cent) followed by Sinn Féin (51 per cent). The SDLP and Alliance party are the most trusted parties.

Professor David Phinnemore, of Queen’s, who is leading the research into the protocol, said although there is a “significant minority resolutely opposed to the protocol, a majority of voters continue to see either actual or potential benefits and would much prefer outstanding issues between the UK and the EU to be resolved through agreement as opposed to unilateral action by the UK government”.

“There is some optimism that the latest UK-EU talks will lead to such agreement,” he suggested.

Prof Katy Hayward, who is also working on the research project, said the findings that just three in 10 voters want the protocol scrapped before an executive is established “shows quite how influential the political parties are” in the North despite being widely distrusted on the issue.

“This points to the difficulty for the UK and the EU in finding consensus in Northern Ireland for accepting any agreement they might come to on the protocol, and the subsequent obvious difficulties for powersharing,” she added.