Excess deaths in Ireland this winter linked to rise in flu and pneumonia

Excess deaths were recorded this winter over a period of at least six weeks, with many linked to a surge in flu and pneumonia cases, official figures indicate.

The number of deaths last December was more than 25 per cent higher than expected.

The rise in the number of deaths beyond what is normally expected affected all age groups, but was most pronounced and lasted longest among older people.

While some deaths have still to be registered for the period, the Health Protection Surveillance Centre (HPSC) says final figures will show excess mortality for at least a six-week period in December 2022 and January 2023.

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The period around and after Christmas was marked by a surge in flu, Covid-19 and other respiratory viruses, leading to record overcrowding in hospitals and delays in post mortems and funerals.

However, the flu wave tailed off more quickly than expected, and Covid-19 hospitalisations are at an 18-month low.

The HPSC says there was excess flu and pneumonia mortality over four consecutive weeks from mid-December to mid-January, reaching “moderate” levels at the turn of the year.

There was “low-level” all-cause mortality in all ages from mid-December to the first week of January.

It recorded “moderate” excess mortality among 65-74 year-olds in the last week of December 2022, and among 75-84 year-olds in the last two weeks of December 2022.

Delays in burials

A spokesman for the Irish Association of Funeral Directors said: “The Irish Association of Funeral Directors is aware that the Taoiseach Leo Varadkar has been quoted as saying that he is seeking advice over concerns of a rise in death notices being published recently.”

Funeral directors say there have been delays in burials but denied this was related to excess mortality. “Whilst some members have experienced delays in arranging funerals and have advised the families involved that funerals for their loved ones may be taking slightly longer than usual, these delays are not specifically associated with the reporting of a higher number of deaths occurring in recent weeks,” the association said last month.

The HPSC uses a standardised algorithm developed by Euromomo – a European mortality monitoring project – but it acknowledges there are other methods for calculating mortality that can produce widely differing results.

According to Eurostat, which uses a different method, Ireland experienced 24.4 per cent additional deaths in December 2022, higher than the 19 per cent recorded across Europe.

As we have experienced a winter of high levels of influenza cases and hospitalisations, it would not be unexpected to see excess mortality

—  Minister for Health Stephen Donnelly

Figures for Ireland are complicated by the time it takes to registered deaths here, although adjustments are made for this lag.

The HPSC figures were provided by Minister for Health Stephen Donnelly in answer to a parliamentary question from Fine Gael TD Fergus O’Dowd.

Mr Donnelly pointed out that excess deaths have been recorded in previous winters with high flu levels, and during periods of the Covid-19 pandemic.

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“As we have experienced a winter of high levels of influenza cases and hospitalisations, it would not be unexpected to see excess mortality.

“Other important factors that may impact excess mortality include the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic, circulation of other respiratory viruses, impacts of cold weather, and an ageing population.”

Covid cases

The number of patients in hospital with Covid has edged up recently after hitting an 18-month low of 135 a week ago. Tuesday’s figure was 186.

There were nine patients in ICU with Covid, the lowest figure since mid-December.

In a further sign of normalisation, the HSE says it plans to stand down its community testing centres for Covid.

Chief medical officer Prof Breda Smyth recently discontinued the weekly virus update that had been published by the CMO throughout the pandemic.