Preparations for potential ‘perfect storm’ of Covid-19 surge and flu in autumn

Ireland could potentially be hit in the autumn by a “perfect storm” of a surge in Covid infections and a large outbreak of flu, Minister for Health Stephen Donnelly has warned.

He said that Australia is reporting earlier and larger infections of flu over the past few days, with the rate “a lot higher than the five-year average” for that country. He said it has also occurred several months earlier than previous flu seasons there.

He said that in Ireland several hundred patients were admitted to hospital each year with flu. There are also a relatively small number of fatalities associated with the influenza virus, including among children.

Mr Donnelly said that, being cognisant of the developing situation in Australia and the southern hemisphere (which is a reliable indicator of what will occur in the northern hemisphere later in the year) public health experts in Ireland were now planning for a “a combination of an early flu season, a very significant flu season, together with a surge in Covid-19 regardless of a new variant of concern”.

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He said: “People will be going back to work, people will be coming back from their holidays, people will begin to go back indoors.”

Covid surveillance

He said that acting chief medical officer Prof Breda Smyth was now working on a very comprehensive plan for the autumn and the winter.

“We’re looking at vaccines, we’re looking at testing regimes. We’re looking at surveillance methods for Covid. We’re looking at ventilation and filtration. We are looking at rapid escalation protocols.”

In terms of vaccination for flu, Mr Donnelly said he had asked the National Immunisation Advisory Committee (Niac) to take another look at the issue. He said the same funding had been secured as last year but, given the potential escalation, he said perhaps more could be done.

“Given this potentially perfect storm of flu, Covid-19 and RSV [respiratory syncytial virus, which gives cold-like symptoms] and whatever else, I have asked, can we go further?”

The Minister said preliminary figures were showing the admission rates to hospitals for Covid-19 are falling and said this could be partly attributable to all the people who came forward to get a second booster over the past eight weeks.

Mr Donnelly was speaking at the release of a report which evaluated 123 projects funded through the Sláintecare Integration Fund.

Home treatment

Many of the projects focused on treating patients in the community and their own homes rather than in hospitals or in emergency departments.

One such project Edith (Emergency Department in the Home) was developed by St Vincent’s hospital. It has allowed 5,500 patients receive treatment for falls, or frailty-related problems, in their own homes or locality, by having emergency department medical specialists visit them, including a doctor and occupational therapists.

“The significant impacts of the projects on patients and the healthcare system is highlighted throughout the report. It sets out the hospital admissions avoided, emergency department attendances avoided or the reduction in waiting lists,” said Mr Donnelly.

The initiative has already saved over 100,000km in journey time. Dr Paddy Hillery said that the average age of the patients was 83, and most had either mild, or more severe, frailty.

He said that this initiative remedies for older people what would have been a “potentially negative outcome from moving outside their environment” and having to be brought to an emergency department.

Speaking generally, Mr Donnelly predicted that Ireland would achieve universal healthcare within a decade if those driving the project were determined, and if funding was provided.