Higher temperatures and more frequent warm summer nights predicted for Ireland, says Met Éireann

In coming decades Ireland is likely to experience a decrease in cold winter nights and up to a 10-fold increase in the frequency of warm summer nights with temperatures greater than 15 degrees, according to Met Éireann.

Initial findings from its first set of climate projections confirm a warming climate signal for the country “with temperatures projected to increase across all greenhouse gas emission scenarios”.

The data set confirms an increasing number of heatwaves by the end of the century. A heatwave in Ireland is defined as a period of five consecutive days where the daily maximum temperature is greater than 25 degrees.

In terms of precipitation, summers are projected to be drier and winters to be wetter – with precipitation increasing annually overall.

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The predictions are in the first climate projections under the Translate initiative, which were released at the European Climate Change Adaptation Conference being held in Dublin this week. It is a collaboration led by climate researchers from University of Galway based in the Irish Centre for High-End Computing (ICHEC) and the SFI Research Centre for Energy, Climate and Marine (MaREI) at UCC and supported by Met Éireann climatologists.

It brings together all previous climate projections of relevance for Ireland; “enhancing and improving their confidence and robustness and it combines them into one, easy-to-use, national resource to help Irish society to speak the same climate language”.

It not only examines a range of potential future emission scenarios but also for the first time allows decision-makers to see what Ireland would look like in different warmer-world scenarios.

It is also a stepping stone towards establishing Ireland’s national framework for climate services (NFCS). Co-ordinated by Met Éireann and partner organisations, the NFCS will support climate adaptation for inevitable impacts by providing tailored information and services on Ireland’s changing climate to the public and key stakeholders, such as the energy sector.

The projections will be freely accessible to the public and decision-makers with a view to enhancing “the understandability of complex future climate scenarios by all stakeholders”. This would support many communities and users affected by the impacts of climate change,” ranging from schoolteachers to engineers and from sectoral planners to policymakers”, said Keith Lambkin, Met Éireann’s head of climate services.

“This is a critical step forward in the provision of robust climate services in Ireland. Easily accessible and understandable climate information is vital to support decisions which address key climate issues and risks that impact the public and all sectors of society including the energy sector,” he added.

The data set was already playing a key role in informing Government and sectoral climate planners. “Translate outputs are being used to help improve climate resilience, for example, in our built environment ensuring future buildings and critical infrastructure can handle more extreme heat conditions and that road drainage can manage changes in rainfall patterns. One common standardised set of national climate projections ensures we are all singing from the same climate hymn sheet,” Mr Lambkin said.

Met Éireann is funding Translate-2, a follow-on project which will build upon the current results and continue developing Ireland-tailored climate products and services.

“To build on these significant advances and to stay abreast of international best practice, the follow-on Translate project will update the climate projections with post-processed model simulations based on the latest high-resolution data and emission scenarios,” said Dr Paul Nolan, project lead at ICHEC.

They will also extend the product range by including more variables, such as wind, humidity and radiation. “The improved outputs will support a wide range of sectors in taking well-informed climate adaptation, mitigation and planning decisions,” he said.

UCC project lead Dr Páraic Ryan said: “The next phase of Translate will continue providing risk-based decision support tools and illustrative climate risk case studies to facilitate more robust adaptation decisions, considering the variability and uncertainty associated with future climate, infrastructure performance and societal dynamics.”