Ceta ruling: Green Party support for Costello’s victory subdued in public

In private, there was a rush of congratulations for Patrick Costello from Green Party members following the landmark Supreme Court decision on his legal challenge to the ratification of a EU-Canada trade deal.

“There was a flurry of excitement when the judgment came in, with many congratulating Patrick and saying how proud they are of him,” a source said.

Success, it seems, has many fathers – at least behind the scenes. But while some in the Green Party may be privately energised by the win, few members of the parliamentary party were willing to congratulate Costello publicly. The party’s statement was terse, at best.

That gets to the core of why the Supreme Court decision is a messy one for the Greens, and for the Government.

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‘Anti-trade thing’

For the Greens, Eamon Ryan is faced with a significant ruling on an issue that animates many of his members, especially on the left wing of the party – but one which leaves most of the parliamentary party utterly cold.

“It does seem to me that this is the WTO [World Trade Organisation] protests from 20 years ago in another guise,” said one member of the parliamentary party. “They’ve latched onto the environmental movement but it’s really just a long-standing, hard-left, anti-trade thing.”

Against that, Costello and his fellow rebel, Neasa Hourigan, are actively pushing for a referendum.

The Government’s clear preference is to introduce amendments to the Arbitration Act to legislate its way around the ruling – something the Supreme Court itself has indicated as a solution. But that’s not straightforward. First, unless the amendments are expedited, this could take many months, and plenty of ground hurling as the decision is parsed and its implications worked through. Internal opponents of the Bill, and the Opposition, are sure to stir the pot whenever it comes to the top of the news agenda, making life uncomfortable for the Government and its supporters.

Political capital

In a government with about two years left, whether the Coalition wants to devote political capital and time to this remains to be seen. And when it comes to a vote, it’s likely Hourigan and Costello would again go overboard (at a minimum). Would anyone in the Coalition welcome this coming to a vote as the Government enters the final furlong?

Green Senator Vincent P Martin, a senior counsel who spoke against the ratification during committee debates, said Green support for a vote cannot be taken for granted. “I’d tread very carefully. They got this wrong initially,” he said, adding that if the Government decided to “cure” Ceta by amending legislation, he may seek pre-legislative scrutiny, slowing down the progress of amendments.

However, that is far from a groundswell in support of a referendum from the Government benches, even if both Costello and Hourigan are likely to soon regain the whip. Rather than meet this head-on, the Government has a host of reasons – some valid, some politically expedient – to slow-walk a decision on how and when to ratify the deal. All the statements from the Coalition have been about giving the ruling proper consideration.

“We’ll be considering the implications of this one for quite some time,” quipped one Government source.