Migrants to take 66% of new jobs

Migrants will take up two-thirds of all new jobs if employment continues to be created at the current rate by the Irish economy, according to Davy Stockbrokers.

Over the coming years, the pace of growth in the labour force could slow to less than 20,000 a year in the absence of migration flows, according to Robbie Kelleher of Davy.

"Migration flows will make up more than two-thirds of the increase in employment if employment growth rates are to be sustained."

He said that, from 1995-2000, the main sources of increased labour were domestic. The experience of the past five years were very different. The unemployment rate continued to fall but the absolute numbers unemployed remained the same. In contrast, the pace of net inward migration increased.

The continued buoyancy of the Irish economy stood in stark contrast to elsewhere in Europe.

Over the past 10 years, total employment in the economy had increased by almost 50 per cent or nearly 700,000 jobs. This was the equivalent of a growth rate of approximately 4 per cent, Mr Kelleher said.

During the period, jobs in industry increased by 30,000, which was just enough to offset the decline in agricultural jobs.

Net inflow of migrants this year was likely to be in the region of 50,000 compared with 26,000 in the year ending April 2000.