Fitch maintains negative outlook

Ratings agency Fitch said it was maintaining its negative outlook on Ireland's rating, despite the measures introduced by the…

Ratings agency Fitch said it was maintaining its negative outlook on Ireland's rating, despite the measures introduced by the Government in Budget 2012.

The agency said the budget demonstrated commitment to fiscal consolidation and meeting its EU-IMF targets.

"The budget does not alter our negative outlook on Ireland's 'BBB+' rating, which has been in place since April," the agency said. "This reflects the risks to debt stabilisation, including risks to the economic recovery. Many years of consolidation, with very little room for slippage, will be needed to make Ireland's public debt sustainable."

Fitch said the economy would grow in 2012 but the euro zone debt crisis and possible recession in the region could endanger the country's recovery.

"We calculate that even a small but cumulative fiscal slippage of 0.5 per cent of GDP each year to 2015 would see Ireland's debt reach 121 per cent of GDP in 2015 and not stabilise. This would compare with a peak of 116 per cent of GDP in 2013 under our baseline assumptions," it said in a statement.

Minister for Finance Michael Noonan and Minister for Public Expenditure and Reform Brendan Howlin unveiled a page of measures for €3.8 billion in fiscal consolidation in a two-day Budget earlier this week.

The commitments given to the EU-IMF bailout programme gives Ireland until 2015 to cut the deficit to 5 per cent of gross domestic product. The Government's deficit target for 2012 is 8.6 per cent of GDP.

Ciara O'Brien

Ciara O'Brien

Ciara O'Brien is an Irish Times business and technology journalist