Irish economy sees significant decline in its emissions intensity

While the Republic’s economic output has more than doubled over the past decade, the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions associated with this increased activity have only risen marginally.

This was the main finding of a new study by Central Statistics Office, which assessed the economic intensity of GHG emissions in the State. .

It found that while the value of output rose by 113 per cent (from €372 billion to €792 billion) between 2012 and 2021, GHG emissions rose by just 1 per cent (from 53,857 kilotonnes to 54,362 kilotonnes).

This meant that GHG air emissions were 69 grammes per euro of output in 2021, a value decrease of 53 per cent on the 2012 level. This made the Republic one of the least emissions intense economies in Europe. The EU 27 average was 104 grammes per euro of output.

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There were a number of caveats and cautions tied into the figures. First the pandemic affected the level of industry emissions in 2020 and 2021, particularly for air transport. Hence the 2019 emissions figures were 18 per cent higher than in 2012. On the output side, there was also a much publicised “level-shift” in the Irish national accounts in 2015.

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So while emissions are rising, relative to economic activity or as a ratio of economic activity they have fallen. The reasons for this are not specified in the report but they relate to “changes in the size and structure of the Irish economy”.

The gradual shift to more high-value, high-tech services and away from traditional manufacturing is thought to be one. Another relates to the fact that firms are making more high-value products with the same emissions footprint.

The report noted that the sector with the highest emissions in 2021 was agriculture with 22,098 kilotonnes followed by transportation and storage (9,854 kilotonnes), electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply (9,106 kilotonnes) and manufacturing (7,671 kilotonnes). Despite the high value of output, emissions from the information and communications sector was just 148 kilotonnes.

“With increasing activity (output) an associated increase in air emissions could be expected. However, this relationship was not maintained over the 2012-2021 period, with the change in total economic output (activity) and value added not tracking the change in the level of air emissions,” CSO statistician Mark Manto said.