John FitzGerald: Census reveals much more than population numbers

The preliminary results of the April 3rd census were published last month, an exceptionally fast turnaround. This reflects extensive use of information technology. It’s interesting to note that the results of the State’s first census in 1926 were ready by the following August. However, even using early IT, punched cards, it did take eight more years for the final results to appear.

Many other countries use population registers or administrative data rather than our traditional census method where households fill in a form. As apartment living and gated communities make traditional census-taking more difficult, and as Eurostat seeks annual population counts, it is likely that future census-taking here will move to greater reliance on administrative data.

Last December, the CSO published estimates of the 2020 population based on an experimental exercise using administrative data. That preliminary exercise suggested the usually-resident population of the State in 2020 was 5.2 million, about 1.5 per cent more than the estimated population resident on census night two years later. Some of the gap is because they measured two different things – the 2020 figures were for usually-resident population, and the census counted the population present on census night. So people temporarily out of the country on census night would have lowered the census numbers relative to those normally resident.

The 2020 overshoot was bigger in some counties, with Carlow, Fingal and Monaghan over 5 per cent more than the actual 2022 count. So we may not be ready yet to scrap the traditional approach. One important reason to make the numbers as accurate is possible is because parliamentary representation is based on census figures.

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Returning emigrants

The latest census showed significantly higher underlying immigration over the last six years than had been previously thought, after leaving aside the 18,000 Ukrainian refugees who had registered in Ireland by census night. The success of the economy in creating jobs resulted in a stronger than expected inflow of returning emigrants and new workers in recent years. Labour shortages rather than unemployment are the main concern today.

The regional distribution of population change has shown rapid growth in the commuter counties of Kildare and Meath, with slower growth in Dublin. This is contrary to the National Planning Framework, which called for a more compact growth. Long-distance commuting drives up car use, and is bad for greenhouse gas emissions.

Interestingly, the preliminary census results show a bigger increase in the number of occupied homes than in the number of newly built homes over the previous six years. Overall vacancies have fallen. The legacy of the 2000s housing boom and subsequent crash had left many ghost estates remaining in 2016, particularly in counties such as Longford and Leitrim. Now, by 2022, such counties have seen a higher-than-average fall in vacancies as surplus housing could absorb more population growth or accept more immigrants or returning emigrants.

Urban regeneration

Another notable regional pattern has been the significant immigration to Waterford since 2016. This wasn’t so much about having a ready stock of vacancies, as about the success of Waterford in turning itself around, with very attractive urban regeneration and the growth of higher-tech jobs. Having lagged behind other Irish cities for so long, Waterford has got its act together and has made the most of its undoubted attractions.

Demand for housing is linked to the inflow of returning emigrants and new arrivals, as showed by a 2005 Economic and Social Research Institute paper I did with Íde Kearney and David Duffy. This research found that a growing population increased housing demand and pushed up prices; in turn the higher costs of living in Ireland discourages further immigration, tightening the labour market and raising wage rates. The net effect of this process is that lower-skilled immigrants, with lower earning power, are discouraged by high rents from coming to Ireland. Instead the inflow of workers is now to higher-paying jobs in the IT and pharmaceuticals sector.

If the economy had been less successful, with lower job creation and lower net immigration, the pressure on the housing market would be reduced. While one way of solving the housing crisis would be to dial up a decent recession, this is obviously in nobody’s interests. Instead the challenge remains to remove the obstacles to expanding housing output.

The building industry expanded rapidly in the 2000s, benefiting from new workers with essential skills from eastern Europe, but today the State is too expensive for them. In addition, the gap in wage rates between the Republic and Poland has narrowed. To expand our building industry, we need to focus on those already living on this island, including workers from the North.