Bord Failte forecasts big losses in already ailing tourism industry

The effects of Tuesday's US terrorism attacks are likely to provide a major blow to an already ailing Irish tourism industry, commentators agreed yesterday.

According to Bord Fβilte statistics, an average of 200,000 North American visitors could normally be expected to holiday in the Republic in the last quarter of a year. This year, as a mixture of grief and fear causes the postponement or cancellation of millions of Americans' holidays, this figure is likely to be significantly reduced. Such a result would only add to the tourist industry's problems in a year which has already seen it cope with foot and mouth and the beginnings of a global downturn.

Although authoritative figures have not yet been collated for 2001, it is widely accepted that North American visitor numbers could not possibly approach the one million threshold that was crossed for the first time in 2000. These 1.5 million holidaymakers spent £542 million.

"For the first time in many years, there will be big losses," said a Bord Fβilte spokesman yesterday. "What has happened will further exacerbate a difficult situation."

Historical statistics provide little reason for optimism. According to the Central Statistics Office (CSO), it took three years for North American visitor numbers to recover from the Achille Lauro hijack in 1985. This recovery time was repeated in the 1990s after the Gulf War and it is conceivable that Tuesday's tragedy could produce a similar effect.

Although tourism representatives were yesterday unified in expressing compassion towards the victims, they also conceded that the effects of the devastation will resonate in the Irish industry well into next year.

"US visitors to Ireland are one of our key markets and we will need to assess and review our marketing plans for 2002 as the aftermath of this dreadful tragedy unfolds," said Tourism Ireland chief executive, Mr Paul O'Toole. "Whatever the outcome, we will work hard to convey the message worldwide that Ireland is open for business."

The Minister for Tourism, Sport and Recreation, Dr Jim McDaid, was meanwhile chiefly concerned with the plight of the estimated 35,000 US visitors visiting the Republic at the moment. "Some of these tourists would have been due to travel home yesterday and I am anxious that everything possible is done to minimise any inconvenience to them and to support them at this traumatic time," said Dr McDaid. It is understood that the Minister will assess the long-term effects of the attack at a later date.

Mr John Power, chief executive of the Irish Hotels Federation, declining to comment on the economic consequences, said: "It's much easier to repair a damaged tourist industry than it is to recover from human tragedy," he said.