Business

Residential property transactions fall 18% in first quarter as higher borrowing costs bite

Report by property start-up Geowox highlights steep decline in transactions on back of 10 straight ECB interest rate hikes

The number of residential property sales dropped by almost one-fifth in the first quarter of the year. Photograph: Getty Images

Eoin Burke-Kennedy
Sat Apr 20 2024 - 06:00

Residential property sales fell by 18 per cent in the first quarter of 2024 as buyers grappled with increased borrowing costs on the back of 10 straight interest rate hikes from the European Central Bank (ECB).

According to property start-up Geowox, 10,213 properties exchanged hands in January, February and March this year, an 18.4 per cent decrease on the same three-month period last year.

Dublin accounted for the most transactions (3,095) while Leitrim had the least with just 85 units sold.

The fall-off in new home sales was even steeper, declining by 26.1 per cent — from 2,157 last year to 1,595 in 2024 — while existing home sales fell by 16.8 per cent to 8,618.

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The slide in transaction volumes did not translate into a decline in prices, however.

The data, which was mined from the Residential Property Price Register, put year-on-year inflation in the State’s property market at 6.5 per cent. The median or middle-value price paid for a property was €330,000, up from €310,000 in the first quarter of 2023.

The median price paid for a home in Co Dublin was €445,000, making it 56 per cent more expensive than the national median price (€330,000).

Wicklow had the highest median prices at €450,000, just above Dublin while house prices in Dublin city rose to €500,000. The most affordable county was Donegal where the median price was €165,000.

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Of the Dublin postcodes, Dublin 6, which includes Ranelagh and Rathmines, was the most expensive with a median house price of €854,000.

“The decline [in transactions] could be due to various factors such as economic uncertainty, changes in mortgage rates or other regulatory impacts on the housing market,” said Geowox’s Marco Giardina.

In its report, the firm noted that energy-efficient homes commanded a 22.4 per cent premium over less efficient homes. It also said that despite the overall decline in sales, demand for energy-efficient homes remained “resilient”.

Geowox’s figures broadly tally with the Central Statistics Office’s (CSO) latest Residential Property Price Index which put headline inflation for the 12 months to the end of February at 6.1 per cent, an uptick on previous months.

The CSO’s median price for a dwelling purchased in the 12 months to February was also put at €330,000.

The State’s housing market slowed sharply last year on the back of restrictive ECB monetary policy. However, ongoing supply issues and expectations that interest rates will fall later this year have triggered a renewed acceleration in prices.

The ECB is expected to start cutting rates in June and to implement two or three rate cuts this year as inflation softens. The reduction in borrowing costs combined with the Government’s various help-to-buy schemes has the potential to fan further price growth.

Eoin Burke-Kennedy

Eoin Burke-Kennedy

Eoin Burke-Kennedy is Economics Correspondent of The Irish Times

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