Business

CEOs fear more ‘geopolitical turbulence’ as over half of world’s population go to polls

EY’s latest quarterly survey of 1,200 global chief executives highlights increasing concern about misuse of AI and further rise of populism

More than half of the world's population will vote this year, including in the US. Photograph: Brandon Bell/Getty Images

Eoin Burke-Kennedy
Mon Feb 5 2024 - 00:01

Almost four-fifths of chief executives are concerned about the potential misuse of AI in major political elections this year, a new survey by business consultancy EY has indicated.

With more than half of the world’s population due to vote in 2024, including the United States presidential election, the company’s latest quarterly survey of 1,200 global chief executives also highlighted a growing concern about the further rise of populist parties.

Some 78 per cent of those surveyed said they are worried that populist-driven election results could increase “geopolitical uncertainty and create business challenges”, while 76 per cent said they are worried about the possible misuse of AI.

A deep fake audio recording purporting to be one of the leading candidates in the Slovak elections boasting about rigging the upcoming poll went viral last year.

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The pro-Western candidate was eventually defeated by an opponent who supported closer ties to Russian president Vladimir Putin.

The World Economic Forum’s latest global risks report, released in advance of the Davos event last month, warned that AI-driven misinformation was eroding democracy and threatening social unrest across the world and highlighted it as the most severe short-term risk to human progress.

EY’s survey noted that while many chief executives feel confident about their organisation’s ability to integrate geopolitical turbulence into their decision-making, nearly half of respondents believed there was “room for improvement in their defined and active processes for managing geopolitical risks”.

An overwhelming 98 per cent of chief executives and private equity leaders surveyed are having to make alterations to their investment plans including exiting certain businesses – 32 per cent of chief executives respondents and 38 per cent of private equity respondents – or delaying a planned investment.

“The influence of the political world on the corporate world is as strong as ever, but this year we’re seeing another risk emerge – the rise of AI in political campaigning and the potential for its misuse,” Graham Reid, head of tax and law at EY Ireland, said.

Overall, EY’s survey indicated business leaders were bullish on business performance despite the challenging global environment. Close to two-thirds are expecting an increase in revenue growth and profitability.

“Even though CEOs are expecting slower growth in the global economy, this hasn’t dampened their confidence,” Mr Reid said.

“Mirroring trends that we are seeing here in Ireland CEOs globally are seeking opportunities to drive efficiencies, transform their business for growth and to harness the potential of artificial intelligence,” he said.

“While Ireland’s economy has not been immune to global macroeconomic trends over recent years, businesses here – whether indigenous or multinational – have handled this uncertain trading environment remarkably well and are now looking ahead with increasing confidence to the future,” he said.

Eoin Burke-Kennedy

Eoin Burke-Kennedy

Eoin Burke-Kennedy is Economics Correspondent of The Irish Times

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