Grocery inflation falls back to 11.5% with more declines expected

Grocery price inflation has fallen to its lowest level in a full year and has now declined for the fourth successive month, with retail analysts Kantar suggesting the rate of price growth will ease further as the year comes to an end.

Its latest data puts the current rate of grocery inflation at 11.5 per cent, down 1.3 per cent since last month and 5 per cent since early in the summer.

The research points to the value of grocery sales increasing by 7.9 per cent in the four weeks to September 3rd, with inflation driving the increase in the value of the sales rather than any increase in the volume of sales.

“This slowdown in grocery inflation is welcome news for consumers,” said Emer Healy of Kantar. “This is the fourth month in a row that there has been a drop, down 1.3 percentage points compared to last month, which is encouraging for both shoppers and retailers.”

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She pointed out that while the rate of inflation is still “relatively high” it is the “lowest level we have seen in the last 12 months, and we expect it to continue to fall over the coming months”.

Sales of own-label products were up 11.9 per cent in the latest 12 weeks compared with the same period last year, more than double the sales growth of brands at 5 per cent.

Value own-label ranges had the strongest growth, up 17.8 per cent, with shoppers spending an additional €10.3m year-on-year as they looked to save money at the tills.

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Own-label value share hit 47.9 per cent, while brands hold a value share of 46.6 per cent. Back to school and the return of the packed lunch saw shopping decisions shift when compared with the summer months.

“Regardless of rising costs, parents had to prepare for the end of summer and schools reopening at the start of the month,” Ms Healy said. “This is an important time for many consumers, with parents stocking up and getting ready for the return of the packed lunch. As a result, shoppers spent an additional €7.4m on biscuits, €1m on breakfast cereals, €2.2m on cheese and €947k on bread.”

Online sales were strong over the 12-week period, up a significant 18.5 per cent year-on-year, with shoppers spending an additional €27m on the platform

Dunnes, Tesco and Lidl all grew ahead of the total market in terms of value this month.

Dunnes now holds 23 per cent of the market with growth of 11.1 per cent year-on-year. Tesco holds 22.6 per cent of the market with growth of 11.5 per cent year-on-year.

SuperValu holds 20.6 per cent of the market with growth of 4 per cent.

Lidl has 13.6 per cent of the share with growth of 11.6 per cent while Aldi is on 12.5 per cent with growth of 5.6 per cent year-on-year.