BusinessStocktake

US stocks approach all-time highs, and history suggests it’s a safe time to buy

There’s a consistent pattern of markets rebounding strongly from lows

Some investors may feel nervy that after last year’s slide, the S&P 500 is once again near all-time highs. Nautilus Research data suggests investors need not worry. It found 11 previous occasions where the S&P 500 emerged from a bear market to come within 4.5 per cent of all-time highs. Six and 12 months later, stocks were higher on all but two occasions. More notably, returns averaged 8.64 and 17.41 per cent, respectively – more than twice as strong as average six- and 12-month returns.

In other words, it’s generally time to load up on stocks when indices are near all-time highs, not to lighten up.

Proinsias O'Mahony

Proinsias O'Mahony

Proinsias O’Mahony, a contributor to The Irish Times, writes the weekly Stocktake column