High levels of trading could augur well for stocks

Stocks were volatile last Tuesday, as investors digested interest rate comments from Federal Reserve chief Jerome Powell. The Nasdaq 100, for instance, spiked 1.8 per cent higher before quickly turning around and sinking 2.4 per cent. A third reversal promptly followed as the index roared 2.8 per cent off its lows.

Ultimately, the day ended with strong gains. That’s been a feature of recent activity, says Bespoke Investment, which notes the S&P 500 had enjoyed intraday gains – that is, it gained from the open to the close – on 12 of the previous 13 days. That’s rare – there have only been seven such instances over the last 30 years – and it’s reasonable to assume stocks won’t keep advancing every day.

[ Investors cheer up as they suspect rate-hiking cycle could soon be over ]

Indeed, Bespoke notes every major US index was trading at technically overbought levels (more than one standard deviation above its 50-day average) last week, so some kind of near-term consolidation or pullback wouldn’t be surprising. However, note that the recent winning streak is the kind of thing you see in bull markets, not bear markets. Not one of the previous seven instances, says Bespoke, took place during a bear market environment.