The debate over the exact number of housing units that are required to bridge the gap between demand and supply must rapidly move to how to fast-track the delivery of more homes, not just more affordable homes, but more product for private purchase and private rental.
The housing requirement gap is anywhere from 50,500 to 61,000 a year out to 2030 and beyond, or a total of 303,000 to 366,000 over the six-year period of 2024-2030. Current data indicates that total completions will not come anywhere near 50,500, with the now “older” target of 33,000 units unlikely to be achieved. The deficit from 2024 must then be added to the requirement in 2025 and so on.
Type of housing
Equally important is determining what type of housing units are required. Not everyone is a first-time buyer, not everyone wants to rent, not everyone wants to buy.
This is where a key challenge lies for next government, planners and all industry participants; to build to cater for the type of housing that is required across all categories and in the relevant locations.
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Our analysis breaks down the housing requirement by buyer/renter category, with indicative age groups. It suggests with regards to student accommodation, for example, that almost 3,900 units will be required a year; about 8,500 for renters/first-time buyers; more than 23,000 family homes; some 9,500 units for downsizers; and about 10,000 a year for those aged 75-plus in senior living developments.
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Planning approach
The current draft National Planning Framework (NPF) indicates clear potential to make this happen, with a focus on development within existing urban areas, while at the same time states that planning policies and standards need to be flexible.
The draft revisions to the NPF, if implemented, set out to encourage more people, jobs and activity generally within existing urban areas, rather than mainly “greenfield” development and will require a change in outlook. It also allows for flexibility in terms of planning.
“In particular, general restrictions on building height or universal standards for car parking, separation distances or garden size may not be applicable in all circumstances in urban areas and should be replaced by performance-based criteria appropriate to general location … A more dynamic performance-based approach appropriate to location will also enable the level of public transport service to improve as more development occurs and vice versa.”
The target, albeit too low, has been set, with any revisions by other governing parties, expected to be on the upside.
The current draft NPF, or indeed any revisions to that in the case of a change in government, needs to embrace change rapidly, allow more flexibility in planning and allow for the rapid zoning of land for housing development across all the required categories of housing.
Joan Henry is chief economist and director of research at Knight Frank.
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