:quality(70)/cloudfront-eu-central-1.images.arcpublishing.com/irishtimes/5J6JT3VX4NFO5MKA5B2DX7M4ZI.jpg)
:quality(70)/s3.amazonaws.com/arc-authors/irishtimes/69b85b04-eb00-4472-bc4b-287da74d421a.png)
Support for Sinn Féin has fallen six points in the latest Irish Times/Ipsos B&A poll to its lowest level in three years, and the party is losing ground to smaller parties and Independents. Here are five possible reasons why.
1. A lack of clarity on policy
Sinn Féin has lost the magic one third of the electorate it could claim in voter support as recently as last September. The party’s traditional base – like all party bases – is tribal in its support. But the newer voter base Sinn Féin has recently attracted is less likely to be rooted in republican politics, and is more broadly floating. This is particularly the case with its “last in, first out” group of supporters. Support among older and more affluent voters, who are latecomers to Sinn Féin and therefore the least committed, has fallen eight points.
Sinn Féin’s highest support is among 25-34-year-olds at 41 per cent. This cohort is suffering the rental crisis most acutely.
Government parties talk about the houses they’re building, and the policies they’re introducing to help people buy, but rarely about the cost of rent, despite the massive demographic increase in the number of renters in the country, because they know the cost is still escalating, that rent pressure zones aren’t working, and that every single one of their housing policy interventions has coincided with rent increasing.
:quality(70)/cloudfront-eu-central-1.images.arcpublishing.com/irishtimes/GZQGN5G24ZANDGSZLE7O2VMZVM.jpg)
:quality(70)/cloudfront-eu-central-1.images.arcpublishing.com/irishtimes/TCQ442HCSVB5XDSDMSSDCFEHLE.jpg)
:quality(70)/cloudfront-eu-central-1.images.arcpublishing.com/irishtimes/HJGRNZOU4NCVBCLWULO73TVCKM.jpg)
:quality(70)/cloudfront-eu-central-1.images.arcpublishing.com/irishtimes/QNPT5BX2TVACPO2NLRUXH4T6EQ.jpg)
Sinn Féin effectively owns the issue of housing, but it has become slightly weak at holding on to the rent issue as a key one within the broader housing crisis. The party needs clarity and better communication on policies to reduce the cost of rent, which connect with its potential voters who, across all social classes and locations, are characterised by being annoyed, stressed out by, and resentful of one single issue: the rent is too high.
And clarity is not just lacking on rent, but on a suite of Sinn Féin policies. The passionate support for Sinn Féin at the last election may feel like it emerged as an almost intangible energy, but it does seem to have dissipated over the past four months or so. Social media offered traditionally fertile channels for Sinn Féin’s highly shareable content attacking the Government on housing – but now those channels have been monopolised by Gaza. The party needs to better lay out its stall on what it will be like in government. It must reassert its values and communicate its policies in a clear manner. Blame is one thing; people want policy solutions.
2. Obfuscation on the refugee and asylum seeker housing crisis
Immigration is mischaracterised by the media as an “issue” when in fact there are four factors: an International Protection Accommodation Services (IPAS) crisis, underpinned by the broader housing crisis; discontent in communities experiencing a scarcity of resources and amenities; far-right agitation and an arson crime wave; and unaddressed racism and xenophobia in Irish society. This is presenting a conundrum for Sinn Féin, primarily because the electorate remains uncertain as to what the party’s position is.
Having attended many anti-immigrant and far-right protests in Dublin city, one of my key takeaways is that those protesting, and those who they potentially influence in their communities, are never going to vote for Sinn Féin
The recent Irish Times/Ipsos B&A Snapshot tracker asking voters what they had come across in what the Government has said or done recently that made them think the country is going in the right or wrong direction, had “immigration” as the “issue” that captured the most attention, which is no wonder, considering the level and volume of fractious discourse. But there is a difference between what one is hearing about, and what one will be voting on.
The assumption that there are votes to be had for a party that adopts a broad anti-immigration sentiment needs to be tested. Having attended many anti-immigrant and far-right protests in Dublin city, one of my key takeaways is that those protesting, and those who they potentially influence in their communities, are never going to vote for Sinn Féin. One of the chants outside the Custom House at Monday’s protest was “Sinn Féin traitors” – hardly language suggesting a well of a potential votes.
Research published last month by the Progressive Politics Research Network showed that centre-left parties adopting rightwing policies on, for example, immigration, were unlikely to attract new voters from the right, but were likely to risk alienating existing supporters. “Voters tend to prefer the original to the copy,” said Tarik Abou-Chadi, an associate professor of European politics at the University of Oxford. “Trying to imitate rightwing positions is just not a successful strategy for the left.” If Sinn Féin really is interested in the long game, it needs to reflect on whether even tentatively entering this cul de sac would be a wise strategy.
[ Constrained by the prospect of governing, Sinn Féin is facing a strategic conundrum ]
Sinn Féin’s messaging and action on the asylum seeker and refugee accommodation crisis needs to be much more coherent, and must foreground unity over division. One of the most interesting challenges the party experienced recently regarding its famed ground game was Fine Gael TD Jennifer Carroll MacNeill’s insistence that Sinn Féin did not help her address tensions in her constituency on asylum seeker and refugee accommodation. Carroll MacNeill’s anger certainly came across as authentic. If that is the case, then what is Sinn Féin doing in local communities to engage people in activism and protest that does not blame scarcity of housing on those arriving into Ireland?
:quality(70)/cloudfront-eu-central-1.images.arcpublishing.com/irishtimes/3GF4UMRYNVEKRNASDMOH6RHYWU.png)
3. Lack of solutions for Dublin
Dublin is in trouble, and the fundamental issues in the city – the price of rent; the cost of living; transport; poor planning; corporate gentrification in traditionally working class areas; small businesses closing week in, week out due to difficult trading conditions; street crime; drug crime; commercial over-development; ghost offices, and the quality of life the city offers – are not being addressed, leading to a broad sense of depression and frustration across the city.
Picking up votes in Dublin is an open goal. It is remarkable that Sinn Féin is not consolidating this with relatable messaging that chimes with the population’s desires, needs and aspirations
Yet Sinn Féin, which has the highest number of TDs representing Dublin in the Dáil, doesn’t appear to have answers to these fundamental issues, and rarely speaks about the capital in big-picture terms. Dublin has a leadership vacuum, and is lacking a vision for its future. Dubliners, recognising that the city is floundering, are looking for smart, radical, progressive approaches to the systemic issues the city faces. This desire will probably convert to bigger gains for Greens, Social Democrats, and socialist politicians in the local elections than forecasters expect.
In this context, it’s hardly a surprise that the Social Democrats are up five points to 7 per cent among middle-class voters, and have reached 7 per cent support in Dublin. Although support for Sinn Féin is down by only three points in the capital, this is where they should be gaining.
Picking up votes in Dublin is an open goal. It is remarkable that Sinn Féin is not consolidating this with relatable messaging that chimes with the population’s desires, needs and aspirations.
4. Sinn Féin losing out in rural Ireland
The six points Sinn Féin lost has not converted to support for rightwing parties (Aontú remains static on 1 per cent), or a boost for Independents (down one), nor an increase in undecided voters (up two points, but excluded from the figures). Solidarity-People Before Profit (up one), Social Democrats (up two), Labour (up one), and the Green Party (up two), accounts for six points. In 2020, the underreported “vote left, transfer left” movement benefited both Sinn Féin and leftwing candidates. Transfers to candidates voters perceive as “like-minded” matter.
But this situation changes outside cities. Sinn Féin has fallen 14 points in rural Ireland. Independents – more likely to be rightwing and centre-right in rural areas than independents in cities – have jumped six points. The likely emergence of versions of rightwing farmer parties or blocs in Ireland, as seen in countries such as the Netherlands, will begin to matter more, and will be largely driven by resentment and disinformation around climate change, environmental policies and “immigration”.
In the aftermath of local rural protests against asylum seeker and refugee accommodation, rural independents, and even some mainstream party councillors, were happy to parrot far-right talking points for political capital. But where is Sinn Féin in these communities? In Munster, Sinn Féin’s popularity is lowest at 22 per cent. Fianna Fáil is five points ahead of that. But Independents in Munster are on 23 per cent, more than double that in Dublin. Sinn Féin needs to reassert its brand in rural Ireland without talking out of both sides of its mouth on agriculture and environment.
5. Mary Lou McDonald
Sinn Féin’s leader has made some missteps in recent times. In the aftermath of the Dublin riots in November, taking to social media to post a photo of a street drinker on Parnell Square (around the corner from Sinn Féin’s head office), as well as tabling a failed vote of no confidence in Justice Minister Helen McEntee, left people jaded. Neither of these approaches went any way close to addressing the issues that instigated and catalysed the riot.
Mary Lou McDonald is no longer the most popular party leader. The ground she has lost to Micheál Martin and Leo Varadkar may seem marginal, but it’s important
McDonald’s recent assertion that a united Ireland is “within touching distance” may be reflecting the longer term context of a century of partition, but it is an aspiration not grounded in an immediate reality. For a politician who gained support as a clear-talking, pragmatic voice of the people who want “change”, she needs to bolster her connection, and also work on bringing new faces through the ranks of the party so that everything isn’t left to her and a smattering of spokespeople. Recruiting voters isn’t the only issue for Sinn Féin. Where are the new potential star TDs?
Sinn Féin needs to get over its distrust of external expert voices who could come into the party’s ranks. It also needs to become more porous for those voices who may not see a future for themselves with the party that has historically preferred to grow its own.
Sinn Féin remains the most popular party in Ireland. A dip isn’t that surprising following a seismic half-decade rise, but Mary Lou McDonald is no longer the most popular party leader. The ground she has lost to Micheál Martin and Leo Varadkar may seem marginal, but it’s important. Missing from the public sphere for a chunk of 2023 due to health issues, McDonald needs to reassert herself.