Moldovans pack bags over fears Russia might push beyond Ukraine

Some Moldovans had bags packed, sitting by the door, just in case. In the early days of Russia's invasion on Ukraine, Moldova's bordering country to the east, the fear here was: if he managed to overrun large parts of Ukraine, why would Vladimir Putin stop there?

The Russian leader's long-held dream of rebuilding the lost early 20th century Tsarist empire and recovering Soviet Union territories points to a desire not just for Ukraine's eastern Donbas region but the country's southern coast on the Black Sea. That includes the cities of Kherson and Mykolaiv, and further west to the prized Odesa, the strategic port with the sweeping maritime and economic control that it brings. That city lies just 50km from Moldova's border.

“Moldovans’ biggest fear is that Russian would conquer Odesa and this is pretty close to us, so if they get to Odesa, we just know that the next country will be us,” said Ana-Maria Bozian.

The 18-year-old secondary school student is from one of those families who have packed bags, ready to grab, should Russian tanks pour across the border and they need to leave quickly.

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“Most Moldovans have their bags prepared. For example, my family, we have our bag full of documents, just in case. They are in a suitcase,” she said, walking with pals through the tranquil Stephen the Great Central Park in the centre of Chisinau.

She said one classmate was so spooked by the Russian army's ferocious assault on Ukraine in the last days of February that she left for Italy when the war began.

Living in Ireland

Moldova's large diaspora is spread across Europe, including between 25,000 and 30,000 living in Ireland, offers escape route options should the Russian military decide to move further west.

Concerns in Moldova have eased as Ukraine has stalled Russia's advance westwards at Mykolaiv; a counter-attack by Ukrainian troops has pushed Russian forces back towards Kherson, but fresh Russian rocket attacks on Odesa last weekend have heightened anxieties again.

Fears of a Russian invasion are not without foundation. Geography puts Moldova in Moscow's crosshairs: the one-time Soviet-controlled country sits just east of the limits of Nato's European security blanket that protects other former Soviet states such as the Baltics and Romania next door.

Then there is a piece of the geopolitical jigsaw that Vladimir Putin may wish to join to any future Black Sea conquests: Transnistria. The Russian-backed breakaway territory, a sliver of land wedged between Moldova and Ukraine on the banks of the Dniester River, is internationally recognised as part of Moldova but is controlled by secessionists who want a union with Russia.

Conflict remains ‘frozen’

A brief war broke out there between the Russian separatists in Transnistria and Moldovan forces in 1992. A ceasefire agreement was reached but the conflict remains “frozen”. The remaining presence of about 1,500 Russian troops and an unknown quantity of munitions since that conflict takes on a worrying new calculus for Moldovans in light of Putin’s westward aggression.

Joining Transnistria to any conquered Russian territory in Ukraine would help create the “Novorossiya” (New Russia) that Putin talked about as long ago as 2015, the year after he annexed Crimea, when he was telegraphing his plans that he is executing in this war on Ukraine.

“Many Moldovans think the Russian soldiers will come through Transnistria and eventually attack Chisinau,” said Ana-Maria’s friend Vlad Curti (17), standing next to her in the park.

People here have little belief in the country’s military capacity to defend itself. For that reason, Odesa is seen as a bulwark against the Russian advance to Transnistria given that the Russian troop numbers in the breakaway region alone are not seen as strong enough to take Chisinau and the rest of Moldova on their own.

“Odesa is crucial for us. If Odesa resists, it will mean Moldova will resist,” said Alexei Tulbure, a political analyst and former Moldovan ambassador to the United Nations.

Should the southern part of Ukraine fall to Russia, it would cut off Ukraine from the sea and, as Tulbure sees it, Transnistria could become part of the “Novorossiya” through this southern corridor along the Black Sea, land-locking Ukraine and pushing Moscow closer to Chisinau.

“We will be at the border with Russia then. The Dniester river will become the border between Moldova and Russia,” said Tulbure.

For Moldova's young people, this threat from Moscow is genuine. In Chisinau's central park, Ana-Maria's friend Laura Rotaru (16) expressed concern at a song sung at Putin's political rally and concert in a Moscow stadium last month. She was shaken by the words of "Made in the USSR", an old song by Oleg Gazmanov, a Russian artist with close ties to the Kremlin, that has new meaning. The words are: "Ukraine and Crimea, Belarus and Moldova – it's all my country."

“It all became real,” she said on hearing the song.

Ana-Maria, Laura and their friend Vlad all see their futures in the West, including – for Vlad –hopes of studying abroad in western Europe.

“Not Russia,” said Laura. “That’s like suicide.”

Home to a country that has been occupied by foreign powers down through the centuries, whether it was the Ottoman empire, the Russian empire or the Soviet Union, the three teenagers say they are not as fearful of Russian empire-rebuilding as their parents who lived through the dark years of Moscow control and the economic hardship of the post-Soviet years.

“It is not us who are scared but our parents because they know more of war,” said Vlad.

Ana-Maria knows the family story of a grand-aunt who was deported by the Soviets to Siberia.

“Imagine if the Russians come back now, they will just be the same. We have learned about our history and we don’t want to see that happening to us or to our families,” she said.

Reports of Russian atrocities in Bucha, a town near the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv, this week and the discovery of women's partially naked and burned bodies alarmed these teenagers.

“As a woman, my biggest fear is that Russian soldiers will come, will occupy and will rape. You have heard what they do to women,” she said.

For now, the strong Ukrainian resistance shown in recent weeks has calmed nervous Moldovans who were more fearful in the frenzied early days of the war.

“Ukraine is a wall of defence for Moldova,” Moldova’s minister for health Dr Ala Nemerenco said during a meeting with Oireachtas EU affairs committee members who are visiting Chisinau.

Moldova is trying to build another type of defence by joining Ukraine and Georgia in seeking fast-tracked membership of the European Union last month in response to Russia's invasion. The Chisinau government has insisted though that it will not seek Nato membership with prime minister Natalia Gavrilita stating that neutrality is enshrined in Moldova's constitution.

Former diplomat Tulbure believes “the easiest way” to Nato membership for Moldova is unification with Romania, a Nato member since 2004, but he acknowledged neither side are ready to push for that.

A guarantee of neutrality from the US and other countries, like a proposal suggested for Ukraine in peace talks with Russia, might be “a good formula for Moldova” if it works for Ukraine, he said.

In the meantime, only western political support and Ukraine are protecting Moldova.

“We are protected and in relative stability because of Ukrainian armed forces and the Ukrainian resistance is strong in the face of the Russian invasion,” said Tulbure.

While the immediate danger to Moldova has subsided, he accepts that “anything is possible.”