Coronavirus: 84 new cases, three deaths amid warning Dublin infections may double in fortnight

About 10 days after the opening of the State’s 4,000 schools, cases have been identified in 54 of them, according to public health officials.

In only one school has an additional case been identified and in most instances, the case is being attributed to infection in the community, a National Public Health Emergency Team (NPHET) briefing heard on Wednesday.

A further 84 confirmed cases of Covid-19 have been notified to NPHET, including 51 in Dublin, it has reported. This brings to 30,164 the total number of cases of the disease in the Republic.

Three further deaths were reported, bringing the total number of deaths at 1,781. Four people with Covid-19 have died in the past five days, after almost a month with no deaths.

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The reproduction number, a measure of how many people a case goes on to infect, now stands at close to 1 but 1.4 in Dublin, according to Prof Philip Nolan, chair of the NPHET epidemiological modelling advisory group.

The 14-day national incidence of the disease stands at 38 cases per 100,000 population. Over that period, there have been 1,810 cases - half of them in Dublin. The median age of cases is 32 and 70 per cent are under 45 years.

Expressing concern about the rise in cases, including among older people, Prof Nolan said the daily average has increased from 100-120 to 172.

“We are seeing increasing case numbers in Dublin, growing close to 5 per cent per day. If this were to continue, the number of cases would double every 14 days.”

“Given the size of Dublin’s population it is essential we prevent any further spread now - by limiting our social contacts and taking precautions during any essential contacts.”

The number of hospital patients is 49 with an average of three admissions a day. “We continue to see a concerning pattern of cases, particularly in Dublin,” said acting chief medical officer Dr Ronan Glynn. “Transmission is diffuse across the county, is in all age groups and is mainly being driven by social interaction within and between households.”

Prof Nolan said there has been a “progressive and clear” increase in the number of people hospitalised, though the severity of cases is lower because a younger population is affected than previously.

While cases numbers had remained stable for three weeks, they have been growing for the last 10 days, mostly driven by close contacts of confirmed cases.

At the same time, the number of cases among older people is increasing, and for the first time recently, among the over-85s.

“The fact that the virus has spread into the older age groups is a source of very considerable concern to us,” he said.

In most of the country, the level of disease is stable or decreasing, but Dublin, Limerick and some other counties are “going in the opposite direction”.

In 25 of the Republic’s 26 counties, there was a average of two cases per 100,000 population in the last week, but in Dublin this figure was over six.

Officials said they did not have details of the deaths of recent days but would be watching closely to ensure no new trend was involved.

Christenings

In Dublin, Prof Nolan said, the vast majority of cases are occurring in households, and under half are isolated cases. All parts of the county apart from Dublin South have seen a significant rise in cases.

NPHET is due to review the recent rise in cases at its meeting on Thursday, when it will also review testing procedures and isolation rules.

Dr Glynn said it was in the hands of people in Dublin to “stop this getting worse”, and he went on to suggest that if possible people should not go ahead with family events such as christenings, Communions and household gathering for the next few weeks.

“We want people to be able to socialise and to have as normal a life as possible but they need to do it safely.”

Almost 70,00 tests were completed over the past week, and new locations have opened to carry out swabbing, officials said.

Calling on people to exercise personal vigilance, Prof Nolan said he suspected people are “guarded” in some social settings and especially with strangers but much less so when friends are in their home. Yet they are equally likely to be infected by people they know.

Taoiseach Micheál Martin said on Wednesday there was a lot of concern about the rising numbers in Dublin and Limerick but ruled out immediate local restrictions for the two counties.

Mr Martin said the Government’s longer-term plan for managing the virus, which is due to be launched next Tuesday, would “deal more comprehensively” with spikes in Covid-19 cases in the two counties.

“No specific decisions have been made in relation to those counties right now and NPHET will continue to monitor the situation,” he told reporters at a press briefing at Government Buildings.

There will be a Covid-19 cabinet meeting on Thursday where this would be discussed “in great detail,” he said.

The message to people in Dublin and Limerick was to remain “very vigilant, socially distance, reduce your social contacts,” he said.

Tánaiste Leo Varadkar questioned the need to introduce restrictions in Dublin and Limerick when the incidence of Covid-19 cases is higher in Belfast or other European cities.

“As a citizen and resident of Dublin and a minister responsible for business and employment, I would want a very good justification for that from the public health people as to why we would do anything more drastic in Dublin or Limerick than is being done in other cities around Europe that may have a higher incidence,” he said.

Asked whether the Government was considering similar measures to Glasgow where people are restricted from visiting other people’s homes to stem infections, Mr Varadkar said that he did not know whether they had worked and that there would need to be an analysis of them first.

Mr Varadkar said that the public managed to reduce the virus to very low levels earlier in the summer with public health measures and that people need “to step that up and intensify that” to avoid any new restrictions.