Budget families: the winners (and losers) since 2007

The ESRI last week called for a “neutral” budget, one that neither stimulates nor contracts the economy. But this isn’t what most people will be hoping for come next Tuesday.

Indeed while some relief was forthcoming this time last year, many people will be hoping that come their first pay cheque in January, they will have a little bit more money to go around.

And, if the Government follows through with its plans to make a €1.5 billion adjustment, it could make as much as €750 million available for tax cuts (the remaining €750 million will go on expenditure increases).

However, it may not go as far as people would hope. One area ripe for reform is the inequitable tax treatment of those who are self-employed.

As our review of how typical families across Ireland have fared as a result of budgets since 2007 clearly shows, self-employed people have fared worse than many others.

Indeed while the self-employed person in our examples saw their monthly take-home pay drop by 12 per cent since 2007, the decline was a more moderate 7.2 per cent for dual-income PAYE workers, while pensioners saw their monthly income rise by 1.5 per cent over the period (not taking into account the pension levy).

Given that Minister for Finance Michael Noonan has already pledged to reduce this gap, changes are likely, perhaps allowing self-employed people to claim a tax credit similar to the PAYE credit of €1,650. But the cost of this has been put at €470 million, which could shrink the pot considerably.

But there are also hopes that Mr Noonan will give relief to the broader tax base by reducing the burden of the universal social charge (USC). For example, the Irish Tax Institute has suggested that increasing the €12,012 USC entry point by €1,000, and re-aligning the 1.5 per cent band, would benefit all 1.74 million taxpayers who pay USC. This would cost the exchequer about €50 million.

Other options include reducing the income bands that push people into the higher tax bracket, given that people start paying the top rate of tax at a relatively low level of €33,800. Inheritance tax is another area of concern to many, given the upturn in house prices and the slashing of thresholds in recent years.

The current situation means that some families are being forced to sell family homes in order to meet their tax bills.

Options for the government here, include cutting the rate of capital acquisitions tax (CAT) from 33 per cent (a 1 per cent cut would cost €12 million); increasing the close relation threshold from €225,000 (a 5 per cent increase would cost €13 million); or introduce a new threshold which applies just to family homes.

But, while we await next week’s pronouncements, it’s as good a time as any to reflect on the financial experiences of people and families across Ireland since 2007.

[ So who fared the best – and who did the worst? ]