This Easter weekend any bellyaches Dortmund man Jonathan Sieberg suffers will probably have more to do with German realpolitik than chocolate.
Like nearly 360,000 other members of the centre-left Social Democratic Party (SPD), Sieberg has just received post from his party seeking permission to return as junior partners to the centre-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU).
For Sieberg the prospect of the fourth SPD coalition with the CDU in 20 years “makes me and many people nervous about the next election”.
“I sense most people will grit their teeth and vote in favour,” said Sieberg, a local SPD organiser in the western city of Dortmund, “even though they see a lot missing in the programme.”
Seven weeks ago the SPD secured just 16 per in the federal election, 12 points behind the CDU. Despite its worst result in 162 years the party secured seven ministries in talks, including the influential and powerful finance portfolio.
The party’s imprint can also be seen, leaders say, in higher welfare payments, tax cuts for low- and medium-earners as well as a €15 minimum wage, up from €12. This came on top of a massive political win even before coalition talks began: €500 billion for infrastructure over the coming decade, a long-held SPD demand.
At a gathering in Hanover this week senior party leaders urged delegates – attending in person and online – “not to mess this up”.
“I want that we don’t duck out of sight but help shape the future of this country,” said Lars Klingbeil, SPD co-leader and Bundestag floor leader who soon could be federal finance minister too.
The 47-year-old leader warned SPD sceptics of the alternative to entering government: a weak CDU minority government and, sooner rather than later, fresh elections. That could end with an even weaker SPD and stronger far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) – already jostling with the CDU for first place in opinion polls. “If we fail they will only get louder,” said Klingbeil. “There is an alternative but not one that is good for this country.”
CDU delegates are likely to back the deal on April 28th while SPD members have until April 29th to cast their vote online, with the final result expected the following day. For many SPD delegates the question is what exactly they are being asked to back?
CDU leader Friedrich Merz has triggered fury among his future SPD cabinet members by dismissing their key promises – the €15 minimum wage and tax cuts – as not explicitly part of the agreement or, like everything else in the deal, “subject to funding”.
Merz has stirred the pot further by reviving talk of supplying long-range missiles to Ukraine, not mentioned in the programme for government and well outside the comfort zone of the outgoing SPD-lead coalition.
“I never said I was in favour of that,” said senior SPD politician Boris Pistorius, who is likely to stay on as defence minister.
Though resigned to greater defence spending, many SPD members are anxious to avoid anything that might provoke Moscow and provoke a wider conflict beyond Ukraine.
The Juso SPD youth wing, representing every fifth party member, has already recommended rejecting the deal, which has little to say on education reform or climate protection.
Among those in favour of the agreement many share the opinion of one senior SPD official in Berlin: “There’s not a lot here that will allow us strengthen our profile ahead of the next election.”
Germany’s next federal government has yet to even get down to work – likely on May 6th – but the AfD surge has many looking ahead already to the next scheduled federal elections: in 2029 and, ominously, 2033.
