The great mystery going into today's Irish Champion Stakes is Xaar.
The little grey colt who looked destined for greatness is now struggling to emerge from relative obscurity. Swain and One So Wonderful look the principle obstacles in that struggle but a definite plus point is the man on his back. In European racing there are few bigger plus points than Olivier Peslier and Xaar may yet become one of those gloriously successful mysteries.
Peslier is now champion of France, a double Arc winner and a true international rider but he knows all about coming to Ireland in relative obscurity.
It's only three years since he guided Winged Love to an unlikely but spectacular victory in the Irish Derby. Peslier arrived an unknown to local punters but quickly made an impression with his confidence.
One scribbler, used to rampant tension before big races at the Curragh, was descending the stairs from the bar when a whistling Peslier slid past him on the bannister. Peslier has another memory.
"I was walking the track with the course manager and I said `I think I will win this race.' He told me to relax and that this was the Irish Derby but I said `I know it is, and I will win.' My horse had been beaten by Celtic Swing in the Jockey Club and he was French so no one gave him a chance but I was confident," Peslier said in his heavily accented but improving English.
It's no surprise that it is improving. This year's Epsom win on High Rise completed the English-Irish-French Derby treble. The three years since Winged Love have seen his career take an upward curve with a gradient that would cause a mountain goat to blanch. In demand worldwide yet the confidence has never descended to boorishness.
If Frankie Dettori exhudes charisma out of the saddle and Michael Kinane a ruthless determination, then Peslier swims in an EU charm lake. Personable and accessible, he is now very much in the big league. Last Thursday was spent posing for the mass circulation OK magazine and it's 1 to 20 that the crew found the assignment easy.
In the saddle, however, Peslier becomes the hardened professional, something that helped him when what was supposed to be Xaar's coronation season came crashing around his ears. Easily the best two-year-old of last year, Xaar arrived in Newmarket for the 2,000 Guineas and came fourth. Ordinarily being placed in a classic is hardly cause for woe but Xaar was supposed to be well out of the ordinary.
"Yes I was confident before the Guineas but the winner (King Of Kings) was very good and my horse ran too lazy. For a long time after he did not run and then at Deauville he ran lazy again. At Deauville when the other horses ran up the outside he was lazy and I thought he would finish only fifth. But in the last half furlong he stayed on very well. Leopardstown is a good track and a horse has to really stay the mile and two furlongs but I am confident Xaar will stay," Peslier says.
But will he stay quickly enough. The likes of Swain, One So Wonderful, Shahtoush and Tarascon make this a true Group 1 contest, a level of competition that Xaar hasn't won since putting seven lengths between himself and Tamarisk in the Dewhurst.
Xaar may never again dominate as he did as a two year old but in terms of winning, a head is as good as a mile and Peslier is confident Xaar will stay, act on the ground and is healthy and happy in himself. Throw in the fact that he is trained by man who Henry Cecil himself calls "God" and the presence alone of Xaar at Leopardstown this afternoon takes on a significance.
