Ireland are hardly standing "like greyhounds in the slips, straining upon the start" - as Willy of Avon once put it - but to extend the quote "the game's afoot". Most definitely.

When the Irish selectors convene tonight, still with a view to announcing 24 hours later the side to play Scotland, it promises to be a strained meeting alright. There is, of course, the strained relationship between Brian Ashton and Pat Whelan over the recent little spat. Then there is the strained matter of cobbling together a team from the debris of the Bologna defeat.

All very apposite really, given these are strained times for Irish rugby, what with an even more important meeting in the longer term tomorrow evening, that of the IRFU executive and their deliberations over the vexed issues of full-time provincial contracts.

The decidedly myopic decision to exclude the English-based Emmet Farrell from Irish under-21 selection, even though he is most probably the best Irish full-back at that level by some distance, can be interpreted as a clear signal that the union still has designs on luring all its stars home again. This, after all, is the belief of the ever more powerful president-elect, Noel Murphy, whose close relationship with Pat Whelan adds to the intrigue over the international management set-up.

Granted, South Africa and France have applied this policy of not selecting overseas players; the differences are that they didn't wait until two years after the horse had bolted, and they do have a few more players to choose from.

Sure, a trickle might come home, whether the financial inducements are tempting or not. But the bulk of those based abroad are on long-term contracts and would prefer to remain playing at a higher standard of club rugby.

Contracting four provincial squads of 20-25 at a basic rate of £15,000-£20,000, with bonuses to double or treble an international's earnings over the year, would, admittedly, be spreading the net thinner. But it would give the men in charge of the provinces something concrete to work with and compete on a more level European playing field. It has to be done.

This is a pivotal match. The outlook for the remainder of the season hinges on this one, and the team also has to produce results in the shortterm, if only to show signs of progress.

Hence, it could be that the longer-term will be tempered by the shorter-term need for more experience within the team, especially given that tactical naivety as much as anything else undermined the performance in Bologna.

Injuries and selectorial changes haven't helped. Admittedly, of the 25 players used in three pre-Christmas internationals, 19 were "chosen" by the selectors, while a further six were foisted upon them by injury. But the net result is that an Irish team has not evolved from those games, and a further rash of changes are likely.

Had Conor O'Shea not broken his wrist a week before the New Zealand game, then most probably this position wouldn't be an issue now. But Kevin Nowlan brought with him a refreshing irreverence, speed and eye for the line, only to show signs of his relative inexperience and underdeveloped positional game against Italy.

O'Shea has returned good as new, scoring tries regularly in a losing London Irish side. He is stronger, more experienced and more honed to the professional game. There would also be an element of self-justification in picking O'Shea given the controversial decision not to award Nowlan a contract.

With Dennis Hickie the one home-based player nailing down a position on the right-wing, the need for experience, a degree of proven ability at international level and current good form in a winning Saracens side may see Richie Wallace (the leading contender until injured earlier in the season) usurp Darragh O'Mahony, though a hunch suggests the latter's try against Italy will help him hold on. Sadly, the in-form, lightning quick Niall Woods (who also gives an alternative place-kicking option) won't even enter the equation.

Midfield is causing the selectors most concern (and could even delay the finalisation of the team). Mervyn Murphy may get a mention, and there's an argument for pitching the gritty, physical presence of Stanley McDowell in there. But Kevin Maggs and Mark McCall are likely to hold on; the cupboard has been almost stripped bare by injuries to Rob Henderson and Jonathan Bell.

One could see the Scots licking their lips in targeting that area and that partnership would be made to look even more slight by the selection of David Humphreys. Another volte face regarding the number 10 jersey? It's certainly not impossible.

Eric Elwood is more of a proven match-winner and tactical leader at this level. It's interesting to note that he has been on the winning side in nine of his 21 internationals (including four against Wales and two against England), with one draw and 11 defeats - a highly creditable return in this era for Irish rugby. Humphreys has enjoyed just one win in seven caps, yet this one could be swayed by the longer-term thinking and Humphreys' suitability to the Ashton plan.

As he usually does, Humphreys showed some real flair against Italy and his club partner Niall Hogan had one of his best games in an Irish shirt against Italy. The longer-term strategy and the belief that Brian O'Meara's technically superior pass is more suited to the team's desired style may swing the decision the Cork man's way, yet Hogan takes on more responsibility and provides more of an all-round presence.

Given the anticipated return of Nick Popplewell and Paul Wallace, the front row of Poppy-Woody-Wally, backed by the side's one consistent thread of Paddy Johns and Malcolm O'Kelly, looks a relative formality. Not so the vexed back-row.

Getting the right balance has clearly been concentrating the mind of Ashton and the sudden call-up of David Corkery may be a signal of intent. It would be encouraging to see a big hitter in there too. Despite the coach's obvious liking for Dylan O'Grady, the flawed selection of the Sale flanker against Italy should be rectified by the return of a fit-again Kieron Dawson, clearly the quickest and most suited to the team's stated approach.

It's inconceivable that Eric Miller will either be dropped or moved along the back-row to accommodate Victor Costello. Miller may be nearing a last warning, but, potentially at least, he provides more, while there remain questions about Costello's defence.

Thus a team along the lines of O'Shea; Hickie, Maggs, McCall, O'Mahony; Humphreys, Hogan; Popplewell, Wood, P Wallace, Johns, O'Kelly, Corkery, Miller and Dawson could be straining at the leash sometime tomorrow. Admittedly, there are six London Irish men in there who have the losing habit, but there would also be two (and possibly three) Saracens' men. And there's generally more of a harder, experienced edge to it.

This game after all, is a dogfight, a one-niler, a relegation four-pointer to kick off the campaign.