HURLING ANALYST IF THE stakes were high going into last Sunday's Munster hurling final, they're even higher going into this evening's replay in Thurles. Like last week, the winners are straight into an All-Ireland semi-final, avoiding Kilkenny in the process, but this time the losers are out again just a week later in the All-Ireland quarter-finals.
That’s a three-game schedule I know both Cork and Waterford would much rather avoid.
I said going into last Sunday’s drawn game it was very difficult to separate the two teams. It turned out that way and I think some of the same theories apply here. I was a little unsure of how Waterford would perform, and at the same time was unsure of Cork’s true potential, and in many ways it’s the same again for this evening. I just think Waterford can get a greater handle on Cork
As it turned out, plenty of the Waterford players performed well last Sunday, although they didn’t always get the return they should have. They missed a lot of opportunities, including John Mullane’s chance on goal, especially in the first half. Overall they certainly didn’t capitalise on all the good possession they enjoyed and I felt Cork were more than happy to be going in at half-time just a point down.
It was really only the one surge from Cork midway through the second half that brought them into the game, so it would have been very disappointing for Waterford had they lost it.
Instead they came back with great determination, proving again, like in most games between these teams since 2004, it really is very difficult to separate them.
Obviously it’s a big surprise to see Seán Óg Ó hAilpín named given his hamstring injury, although I don’t expect him to play. Their half-back line looked to have re-established itself this year against Tipperary, whose half-forward line was also proven to be very inadequate when it was put up against them.
But last Sunday the Cork half backs did find it difficult to get the supply of ball into Aisake Ó hAilpín, certainly a lot harder than against Tipp.
Waterford’s half forwards deserve some credit for that, the likes of Kevin Moran, who was able to break some ball. The Waterford defence did well, particularly Michael “Brick” Walsh and Liam Lawlor. Having said that, John Gardiner improved as the game went on, so did Ronan Curran, although they didn’t hold sway for long enough.
It was a great testament of Waterford the way they were able to get on top of Cork. One of Cork’s big problems the last day was their half forwards couldn’t win much primary ball, Niall McCarthy aside. Brick Walsh was outstanding in preventing that, but now that Michael Cussen is starting in there the task might be a little more difficult.
Cussen had a big influence when introduced the last day, although it may be more difficult to do that over 70 minutes.
For Cork to win they’ll have to get a lot more from Aisake Ó hAilpín, and also Pat Horgan. Although Lawlor mightn’t get away with as much as he did on Ó hAilpín the last day. But either way Cork need to create more of a scoring threat up front, well above the surge they produced last Sunday.
On reflection, I suspect Waterford will have come out of last Sunday’s game a little happier with the recovery. Eoin Kelly will come on again with another game behind him, and there is the greater possibility for Waterford to improve.
Last Sunday was their first game since the June Bank Holiday and the long break didn’t suit. They’ll be that bit sharper again this time.
There’s no doubt Cork were superb in their win over Tipp back in May, but it’s looking now as if they may have played a little above themselves. Certainly if you look at their last four games – including the league final against Galway, the Limerick game, and also last Sunday – the Tipp performance was the odd one out, because they haven’t come close to matching it, other than in that five-minute surge last Sunday.
The reality, perhaps, is Cork just aren’t as good as they looked that day against Tipp. They were so fired up that day, against a Tipp team that was possibly over -hyped.
Still it’s not easy to pick the winner this evening. Replays often go off in different ways but I expect this to be very close yet again. But I do have a slight fancy for Waterford. I think they’ve the greater depth and spread of tried and tested players now, the old guard, and newer names like Noel Connors, Shane O’Sullivan and Richie Foley.
They look to have deepened their resources that bit more than Cork in the last couple of years, and the ultimately might be the difference this evening.
Looking briefly at the remaining two qualifiers, the Tipperary-Offaly game in Portlaoise tomorrow represents another step on the road of redemption for both counties.
The Limerick game was always going to be a bit of banana skin for Offaly, and so it nearly proved, but then Offaly never seem to play their best when they’re favourites.
They’ll be relishing this chance now against Tipperary, who certainly didn’t shine in any great way against Wexford. There’s no doubt Offaly will pressurise Tipp here. They have a strong defence and some strong scoring forwards, particularly Shane Dooley, and this will be a real test of Tipp’s power of recovery this year.
But I think Tipp will come through it, if only because they’ve a good record against Offaly, and also the under-21 victory in Munster during the week will have further restored some confidence.
But anything less than a much improved Tipp performance and Offaly can take them.
The Dublin-Antrim tie looks a little more straightforward in that I expect Dublin to progress. Like Offaly, Dublin aren’t the best of favourites, but I think they’ve learnt the lessons of last year, when they lost to Limerick, and they’re also well used to Croke Park now. They won’t want to underestimate Antrim, but they have the necessary experience now, and can’t have any excuses if they don’t win.
