WALES STILL fancy themselves to outwit the blunt-edged challenge of England today but they must find someone other than Shane Williams to apply the coup de grace. The International Rugby Board’s world player of the year has failed to recover from an ankle injury suffered in Scotland last Sunday and has been replaced on the left wing by Mark Jones for a game that will reveal much about the respective nations’ state of mind.

On paper the absence of Williams’s wizardry is a significant loss and England’s insistence that the stadium roof must remain open is another small victory for the visitors as they seek to overturn considerable odds. With Andy Powell also sitting out training yesterday it is almost as if the hosts are trying to make a game of it after a blizzard of gloom-laden predictions from the English side of Offa’s Dyke.

If an away win still seems about as likely as a heart-warming economic forecast, it will be fascinating to see how Wales respond to their unfamiliar role of red-hot favourites. The absence of Gavin Henson made little discernible difference at Murrayfield last Sunday, but nagging away at the back of Welsh minds will be England’s capacity to win the odd big game through bloody-mindedness alone.

As Australia found in the 2007 World Cup quarter-final, it is an ill-advised side who invite a supposedly semi-comatose England to drag them into a slugging match. “Of course we’re confident, but we know it’s a formidable challenge,” insisted Rob Howley, the Wales assistant coach. “The collisions are going to be huge for us. Many things have been printed about their Italian performance but they’ve still got players with the ability to win games.”

Howley also insisted the loss of Williams was “not a blow” and stressed Jones has never let his country down. He was conveniently overlooking the first half of this fixture last year, when Lesley Vainikolo was bearing down on the Scarlets’ winger with serious intent and Jones was part of a side who were on the rack at Twickenham for long periods. If a massive amount has changed since then – England boast just six survivors – it simply underlines the perennial truth that Anglo-Welsh games rarely turn out as expected.

Neutrals, even so, will be backing Wales. If they were to take England apart with an off-loading, free-wheeling display with echoes of the great Welsh sides of the 1970s it would, among other things, add a fresh layer of delicious anticipation to this summer’s Lions tour of South Africa. Martin Johnson, understandably, could not care less about such trifling matters. “If we win by one point England fans will be happy, let’s be honest. We don’t have to justify how we play to anyone.”

No, but sooner or later England’s management will have to accept sides who rely on one-dimensional battle plans become fatally easy for opponents to second-guess. That may well have been the point Warren Gatland was subtly making when he claimed on Thursday that Wales had managed to crack England’s lineout codes. It was another expert piece of mischief-making from a coach happy to stand by his belief England have “regressed” and who is fully aware that Johnson does not like playing mind games. “We’re happy we’ll be okay,” retorted Johnson. “Let’s see what happens at 5.30pm. That’s when teams do their talking.”

As a player, he never lost in Cardiff, but all good things come to an end eventually.

Guardian Service

WALES

15 Lee Byrne (Ospreys)

14 Leigh Halfpenny (Cardiff Blues)

13 Jamie Roberts (Cardiff Blues)

12 Tom Shanklin (Cardiff Blues)

11 Mark Jones (Scarlets)

10 Stephen Jones (Scarlets)

9 Mike Phillips (Ospreys)

1 Gethin Jenkins (Cardiff Blues)

2 Matthew Rees (Scarlets)

3 Adam Jones (Ospreys)

4 Ian Gough (Ospreys)

5 Alun-Wyn Jones (Ospreys)

6 Ryan Jones (Ospreys, capt)

7 Martyn Williams (Cardiff Blues)

8 Andy Powell (Cardiff Blues)

Replacements:Huw Bennett (Ospreys), John Yapp (Blues), Luke Charteris (Newport Gwent Dragons), Dafydd Jones (Scarlets), Dwayne Peel (Sale), James Hook, Andrew Bishop (Ospreys).

ENGLAND

15Delon Armitage (London Irish)

14Paul Sackey (Wasps)

13 Mike Tindall (Gloucester)

12Riki Flutey (Wasps)

11Mark Cueto (Sale)

10Andy Goode (Brive)

9Harry Ellis (Leicester)

1Andrew Sheridan (Sale)

2Lee Mears (Bath)

3Phil Vickery (Wasps)

4Steve Borthwick (Saracens, capt)

5Nick Kennedy (London Irish)

6James Haskell (Wasps)

7Joe Worsley (Wasps)

8 Nick Easter (Harlequins)

Replacements: Dylan Hartley (Northampton), Julian White (Leicester), Tom Croft (Leicester), Luke Narraway (Gloucester), Paul Hodgson (London Irish), Toby Flood (Leicester), Matthew Tait (Sale Sharks).