FESTIVAL PREVIEW: THE ONLY thing that had been preventing Cousin Vinny from absolute "banker" status ahead of today's William Hill Supreme Novices Hurdle seemed to be the presence of his champion amateur jockey Patrick Mullins among top professionals. But yesterday came the disarming news that the horse hasn't travelled to Cheltenham very well.
“He didn’t travel over quite as well as I expected or hoped. Sometimes that happens with horses coming over a second year. He is settling down now but he did not travel or eat as well as I hoped,” admitted trainer Willie Mullins.
That sets another poser ahead of the festival opener which had looked a rare opportunity for punters to get stuck in to a genuine hotpot. Cousin Vinny may still be a warm favourite to get the 2009 Festival off to a flier for the Irish, but it’s likely he would have been a hell of a lot shorter without this late scare.
It certainly puts any question marks over his jockey into perspective. In Patrick Mullins we are dealing with a young man who guided the horse to a remarkable victory in last year’s Bumper while at the same time studying for his Leaving Cert. He would be the last to say he is as good a jockey as Ruby Walsh, but he is already a champion in his own sphere and what he has that is invaluable right now is complete confidence in Cousin Vinny.
Doubters will still point to last month’s Deloitte disaster at Leopardstown when Cousin Vinny stumbled and unseated Mullins at the last. However, what is worth looking back at that race for is the absolute class with which the horse travelled throughout. It had several knowledgeable judges making tentative comparisons to the legendary Golden Cygnet who landed the Supreme 31 years ago in devastating fashion.
Provided the horse is at the top of his game, Mullins can even take the safe route on the outside, allowing Cousin Vinny a clear sight of his obstacles in the process, and a dominant display could still be on the cards today. And just remember Golden Cygnet was ridden by an amateur too!
Betting on the day’s other Grade One contest, the Irish Independent Arkle Trophy, is in contrast wide open with five of the 18 runners trained in Ireland. There is a solid link between novice form on either side of the Irish Sea as Tatenen was beaten by Follow The Plan at Leopardstown last Christmas. There were pace excuses made for Tatenen that day but along with other British-trained hopefuls like Calgary Bay and Kalahari King he looks vulnerable enough to give the visitors reasonable hope.
The forecast of overnight rain is bad news for Forpadydeplasterer but a boost for Golden Silver who nevertheless is hardly the most straightforward of horses. In the circumstances it may pay to tread carefully with Plant Of Sound whose versatility in terms of ground is attractive.
Quevega will be another major Mullins hope in the concluding David Nicholson Mares’ Novice Hurdle. Her comeback effort at Punchestown was impressive but Mullins, while admitting he feels she is his best chance of a winner this week, has also admitted to concerns about the proximity of that race to the festival.
Megans Joy could run a big race at her best but she has become very inconsistent so this could be a home victory courtesy of the former Punchestown festival Grade One winner United. Lucy Wadham is a shrewd trainer and United’s victory over three miles at Ascot last time means she will be staying on strongly at the finish.
Ten of the 16 runners in the Cross Country Chase are Irish with the “banks king” Enda Bolger attempting to continue his dominance with four runners headed by the reigning champ, Garde Champetre. The 2006 Gold Cup fourth L’Ami brings undoubted class to the event, but he didn’t fully satisfy Bolger with the way he won his warm-up at Punchestown and may be vulnerable. Twelve lengths behind him that day was Jaspers Dream who was noted running on well and is a colossal 21lb better off at the weights this time. At a big price, Niall Madden’s mount represents a touch of each-way value.
Just two Irish horses line up for the William Hill Trophy Handicap Chase – Cailin Alainn and Patsy Hall. Cailin Alainn has some unhappy jumping memories around here and maybe The Sawyer can go well on soft ground at big odds.
With War of Attrition ruled out of Friday’s Gold Cup, Kauto Star is now favourite ahead of 2008 winner Denman.
Trainer Mouse Morris decided to withdraw the 10-year-old after he suffered a slight injury. “We gave him a scan and that came back perfect, but I’m not going to take a chance with him,” said Morris. “I would say he’ll be sound by Friday and he’ll probably go for the National at Aintree now.”
The withdrawal means there will be no Irish-trained runner in the field.
