THE ability and willingness of the English Rugby Union to unravel aspects of their £87.5 million television deal with Sky, is the key element in whether or not they can reach accommodation with the other home unions and thus stay in the Five Nations Championship.
The proposals for a settlement of the ongoing dispute put to the other four nations in the championship by the English Union were discussed in London on Monday at a meeting of representatives from Ireland, Scotland, Wales and France.
There is no doubt that the English Union has moved some way from the entrenched position they adopted when they scold out the television rights to their club competitions and the internationals in which they are involved at Twickenham to Sky, including their Five Nations matches.
There is still, I understand, some way to go before the other nations are prepared to readmit England to the annual series.
It must also be borne in mind that it is not only the Five Nations matches that are stake for England. The other home unions have made it clear that there will not be matches at any level against England if the English Rugby Union persists in going it alone on the television rights. Nor, as I understand the position, is there any enthusiasm from the other countries for a five-year agreement.
There is now evidence that the major powers in the southern hemisphere who sold out their game for to years to Sky, feel that an agreement for such a period is far too long.
Syd Millar, Ireland's representative on the television sub-committee who attended the meeting in London, said yesterday: "Certain proposals were put to us by the English Union, but further clarification is required before any decision can be made. In reality the key to a settlement of a dispute that should not and would not have arisen had England not sold their game for the next five years, including selling what does not belong to them ink respect of the five nations, lies with the English Union. Had they, as the rest of us did, stood by the long-standing procedure we would not have the current impasse.
"However, one must continue to hope for and work towards a settlement, and that is what we are doing. When we get clarification on the issues we have raised, then the matter will be considered again, " said Millar. "Until such time as those answers are provided and there is clear, defined and specific clarification on certain aspects, then no decisions can be made."
Quite apart from the financial aspects of the deal, and whatever benefits will accrue to the Ireland, Wales and Scotland - France have their own agreement - a crucial factor as far the Irish, Scots and Welsh are concerned is the live transmission of the matches to the widest possible audience through terrestrial television.
Under England's agreement the terrestrial channels would not be able to televise the internationals live. They would have secondary rights with Sky having the live transmission. That is not acceptable to the other unions and this could prove to be a stumbling block towards a settlement unless England can unravel that aspect among a few others of their deal with Sky.
Perhaps it may be possible to reach a compromise if simultaneous transmission by Sky and the terrestrial channel with which the TV sub-committee reaches agreement after following the accepted practice of asking the channels to tender for the rights to the championship.
"If you make unwise decisions they inevitably present problems. I have made my position very clear in relation to the intentions of Sky television in the past. Suffice to say the negotiations between the English Union and their long standing partners are still going on," said Millar.
"It is up to the English Union to give us the answers to the points of clarification we have sought. Until that happens it ifs futile to be either optimistic or pessimistic. When we get the response from Twickenham then we will meet to consider the position again. But I will make it clear that there are other very important aspects to the televising of the championship besides money."
It is hoped that England's response may come within the next 48 hours and if that is satisfactory then it could be back to the table with the other nations in pursuit of a settlement that everyone in rugby wants to see come about.
What is very clear, however, is that there will be no yielding on the basic points of principle by the other nations. That realisation now appears to have finally got home to those at Twickenham who made the agreement that has so incensed the other nations.
Lions coach Ian McGeechan departs for South Africa later this week to run the rule over the opposition for next summer's tour.
South Africa play the first of four successive Tests against New Zealand on Saturday and McGeechan will be in Cape Town to assess the Springboks.
The full Lions management party, headed by manager Fran Cotton, will return to South Africa in October to arrange such matters as travel, hotels and training-pitches.
The identity of McGeechan's assistant will be revealed at a news conference in Cardiff on August 29th.