Turkey are likely to escape with a heavy fine when UEFA investigate the scenes which led to Tony Cascarino being punched and kicked in the pitch invasion which followed their European Championship play-off win over Ireland in Bursa last Wednesday.

A meeting of UEFA's disciplinary commission in Nyon on December 16th will rule on the incidents.

The reports of the match referee Gilles Veisseire of France and the Norwegian who acted as UEFA's official observer at the game are understood to be with UEFA and will form the core of the evidence in a case which could have serious consequences for the Turks.

But despite the gravity of the security lapses which allowed spectators on to the pitch at the final whistle and endangered Irish players and officials, Turkey's place in the finals of the championship next summer is not in jeopardy. This point is accepted by the FAI who contacted UEFA on a point of information shortly after their arrival back in Dublin last Thursday but decided not to lodge an official protest.

"UEFA are aware of our dissatisfaction over the incidents at the end," said FAI president Pat Quigley. "When their official observer came to seek Mick McCarthy's views after the game he was told how strongly we felt about the crowd trouble which followed the final whistle.

"Those sentiments have almost certainly been relayed to UEFA but at this point it would be wrong to infer that Turkey will not keep the tie."

Confirming that FAI chief executive Bernard O'Byrne had been in contact with them, a spokesman for UEFA said it would be unwise to speculate on sanctions until all the evidence had been heard.

"At the moment the matter is being treated routinely," he said. "But depending on the contents of the reports, it may assume a much bigger significance. The reports will not be read until December 16th and our response will be announced the following day."

UEFA insiders say the Bursa scenes are viewed more seriously than that, however, and in addition to a swingeing fine, they believe there is a possibility of the Ataturk Stadium being declared unsuitable for future international games.

Having said his piece to the UEFA observer and repeated his concerns at subsequent press briefings, McCarthy believes that the problem is now best left in the hands of the European authorities.

In the meantime, he is still reflecting on that late collapse in Skopje when Macedonia scored in the last 12 seconds of injury time to deny his team an automatic place in the finals as winners of Group Eight.

His critics would have him pay for that lapse with his job but saner judgments have already been made at official level and the former Ireland team captain will still be in charge for the start of the qualifying programme for the next World Cup.

The various European groups will be drawn in Tokyo on December 7th and officially the qualifying process begins on April 1st at a stage when all of Europe's major football powers will be completing their preparations for the finals of Euro 2000 in Holland and Belgium next summer.

Consequently few, if any, qualifying games in the World Cup will be played in Europe before the traditional start in the autumn and that means a relatively unattractive programme of friendly games in the coming spring.

Ireland's first fixture in the new year will be against the Czech Republic at Lansdowne Road in February and there is every indication that it will be followed by at least two more fixtures, one of them abroad.