SOCCER EURO 2012 PLAY-OFF DRAW:ALL OF Wednesday's good natured joshing about Napoleon and his lucky generals dried up rather swiftly yesterday as Giovanni Trapattoni suddenly found himself having to work hard to dampen expectations after Ireland had received the most favourable draw imaginable for the European Championship play-offs.
The Italian might argue with a certain amount of justification that his men made the luck in Moscow where Shay Given and Richard Dunne were outstanding, but even he admitted afterwards that there had been a measure of good fortune about the game too.
That, though, was nothing really when compared to the other night when a refereeing error resulted in Armenia being reduced to 10 men after 26 minutes and a calamitous defensive one by Valeri Aleksanyan handed Ireland the lead just before the break.
As if that wasn’t enough, it took results elsewhere going the way of Trapattoni’s men for them to secure a seeding for the play-offs which they still would have missed out on had the rankings used been Fifa’s, as they had been when the Irish met France two years ago, rather than Uefa’s.
Then, there was yesterday when Ireland were not only handed two games against the team almost universally regarded as the weakest in the glass bowl in Krakow occupied by the balls representing the four non-seeds, they were also drawn to play the second match at home as pretty much everyone in these situations hopes to.
“It is deluded to talk about luck,” said the 72-year-old yesterday when asked if this was all just further evidence of his relentless good fortune of late. The Italian preferred instead to talk about his respect for an Estonian side that, while ranked well below Ireland had beaten Serbia, Slovenia as well as Northern Ireland (twice) to secure second place in their qualification group.
“Let’s say that the statistics in this case have only a marginal value,” he observed in relation to the pile of them that can be stacked up as evidence that Ireland should qualify over two legs.
“These matches are like cup finals and anything can happen. Undoubtedly the small advantage that we do have is that we are playing the second game at home. Let’s not delude ourselves that we have made it to the finals already. We have two tough matches ahead.
“They beat Serbia and Slovenia and put Italy under a lot of pressure. So let’s not make the common mistake of underestimating them. They have some really technically gifted players.”
That much seemed entirely reasonable although the Italian then appeared to push his, er, luck slightly by attempting to suggest there was no rational basis even for regarding his side as the favourites to progress.
“Why are we favourites?” he asked. “What notions do you have in your heads that make us favourites? This is an international team which like us has made it to the play-offs.
“I am a football man. I do not ignore the threat that this team represents. Only superficial observers would think that this is an easy tie. The players will know this and I know this.
“We are playing against a team who has the same right to be there as us. They had a good qualification campaign and have earned their place at the play-offs through hard fought results, like us. I would not like to think that we have become big headed – a Brazil, Argentina, Spain, or Germany overnight. Have we forgotten where we are in the Fifa rankings?”
This seems just a little ironic given how often Trapattoni likes to point to the world rankings and Ireland’s improved place in them as evidence of the progress that the team has made under his stewardship. Essentially, though, his message is that he and his players will treat their opponents next month with respect and the veteran coach says he has already made a start with his research work.
“I have not had much time yet but I saw the match against Italy and I have already talked to Cesare Prandelli (the current manager of Italy who topped Estonia’s qualification group) about them and I have begun collecting background information on the team from other contacts.
“They are strong, technical, organised and professionally very serious. I have already been told that they are a very valid squad, particularly from a technical point of view in midfield. I have already spoken to Cesare – he was my player – and he has given me good advice.”
Quite how it influences his approach to the games remains to be seen but Trapattoni says the fact he feels the Estonians are quite physical will not necessarily impact in any obvious way on his team selection.
The Italian will nevertheless be pleased to hear that Uefa have confirmed that Kevin Doyle will be available for the second leg which he will go into carrying a yellow card. Although that will not make any difference to the player as any suspension imposed as the result of him getting a second booking would be the subject of an amnesty ahead of the finals in the event that Ireland do qualify.
Regardless of the various selection issues that will have to be addressed, though, Trapattoni insists it will be business as usual next month. “We will prepare as we always do – I’ll get my players four days before and we will be paying close attention to all of the details, as always.”
